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Who's betting on “Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?”?

Sports · $7.2M volume · Ends October 27, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026

Polymarket prices Yes at 71¢ and No at 29¢, a 71% implied chance of Yes. $7.2M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 27, 2026.

34% of the money on Yes and 44% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 11 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 17 points. A week ago, No by 21 points.

1,999 wallets hold a position worth $2.6M in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,964 of them. The largest Yes holder is bisouss, with $179K on it, $875 lifetime loss over 17 markets (6% won). The largest No holder is 0xa694…ab37, with $43K on it, $74K lifetime loss over 4 markets (50% won).

1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $343 on Yes; 1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $2.2K on No; the insider radar has flagged 7 wallets betting $81K on Yes.

Yes71%
Smart money share
34% ▲ 7 pts 24 h
Holders
1,000
Money on it
$2.3M
Holders' winrate
56%
Snipers
1 · $343
Insider flags
7 · $81K
No29%
Smart money leans here
Smart money share
44%
Holders
999
Money on it
$282K
Holders' winrate
67%
Snipers
1 · $2.2K
Insider flags
0

The biggest holders on each side

Yes
TraderPositionLifetime P&LWon
bisouss$179K-$8756% of 17
owenliang666$149K-$26K39% of 18
Lordpengu$144K+$0-
Richidd$123K-$27K75% of 73
surfandturfwhale$113K+$14K53% of 748
No
TraderPositionLifetime P&LWon
0xa694…ab37$43K-$74K50% of 4
marchettamaker$17K+$3.3K93% of 15
BreakTheBankwhale$14K+$9.6M87% of 604
OrwellFactorywhale$8.5K+$23K57% of 846
FrankiST1$8.4K+$0-
Every holder, the full history, and alerts when the smart money moves

Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.

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Questions

Who is betting on "Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?"?

1,999 wallets hold a position worth $2.6M in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,964 of them. The largest Yes holder is bisouss, with $179K on it, $875 lifetime loss over 17 markets (6% won). The largest No holder is 0xa694…ab37, with $43K on it, $74K lifetime loss over 4 markets (50% won).

What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?"?

Polymarket prices Yes at 71¢ and No at 29¢, a 71% implied chance of Yes. $7.2M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 27, 2026.

Which side is the smart money on?

34% of the money on Yes and 44% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 11 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 17 points. A week ago, No by 21 points.

When does this market end?

It is set to end on October 27, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.

Is there insider betting on this market?

7 wallets on Yes ($81K) match the pattern of insider bets: a fresh or dormant wallet putting a lot on long odds. A flag is a pattern, not proof.

Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.

Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Who's betting on Polymarket · Polkyo