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Who's betting on “Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?”?

Sports · $5.7M volume · Ends October 27, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026

Polymarket prices Yes at 10¢ and No at 90¢, a 90% implied chance of No. $5.7M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 27, 2026.

54% of the money on Yes and 60% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 6 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 22 points. A week ago it was split.

1,575 wallets hold a position worth $680K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,506 of them. The largest Yes holder is surfandturf, with $43K on it, $14K lifetime profit over 748 markets (53% won). The largest No holder is degenxbt10, with $73K on it, $66K lifetime loss over 6 markets (83% won).

2 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $396 on Yes; 2 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $452 on No; the insider radar has flagged 4 wallets betting $40K on Yes.

Yes10%
Smart money share
54% ▲ 18 pts 24 h
Holders
1,000
Money on it
$262K
Holders' winrate
58%
Snipers
2 · $396
Insider flags
4 · $40K
No90%
Smart money leans here
Smart money share
60% ▲ 2 pts 24 h
Holders
575
Money on it
$418K
Holders' winrate
70%
Snipers
2 · $452
Insider flags
0

The biggest holders on each side

Yes
TraderPositionLifetime P&LWon
surfandturfwhale$43K+$14K53% of 748
0xa694…ab37$16K-$74K50% of 4
vit236$9.5K+$0-
Kimoo77$6.9K+$0-
ultimate101$6.9K+$5.4K67% of 3
No
TraderPositionLifetime P&LWon
degenxbt10$73K-$66K83% of 6
mommydualipawhale$45K+$9.8K96% of 220
Dropperwhale$33K+$1.5M61% of 1,037
ahvgsyr$24K-$940% of 2
balthazarwhale$22K+$1.2M53% of 44,008
Every holder, the full history, and alerts when the smart money moves

Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.

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Questions

Who is betting on "Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?"?

1,575 wallets hold a position worth $680K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,506 of them. The largest Yes holder is surfandturf, with $43K on it, $14K lifetime profit over 748 markets (53% won). The largest No holder is degenxbt10, with $73K on it, $66K lifetime loss over 6 markets (83% won).

What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?"?

Polymarket prices Yes at 10¢ and No at 90¢, a 90% implied chance of No. $5.7M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 27, 2026.

Which side is the smart money on?

54% of the money on Yes and 60% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 6 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 22 points. A week ago it was split.

When does this market end?

It is set to end on October 27, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.

Is there insider betting on this market?

4 wallets on Yes ($40K) match the pattern of insider bets: a fresh or dormant wallet putting a lot on long odds. A flag is a pattern, not proof.

Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.

Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Who's betting on Polymarket · Polkyo