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Who's betting on “Will Vinícius Júnior win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?”?

Sports · $1.1M volume · Ends October 27, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026

Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $1.1M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 27, 2026.

91% of the money on Yes and 60% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 31 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 30 points. A week ago, Yes by 34 points.

296 wallets hold a position worth $1.5K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 296 of them. The largest Yes holder is JustCrazy, with $159 on it, $32K lifetime profit over 264 markets (47% won). The largest No holder is vzxcvczx, with $94 on it, $1.0K lifetime loss over 34 markets (59% won).

1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $1 on Yes.

Yes0%
Smart money leans here
Smart money share
91% ▲ 1 pts 24 h
Holders
246
Money on it
$1.2K
Holders' winrate
44%
Snipers
1 · $1
Insider flags
0
No100%
Smart money share
60%
Holders
50
Money on it
$323
Holders' winrate
62%
Snipers
0
Insider flags
0

The biggest holders on each side

Yes
TraderPositionLifetime P&LWon
JustCrazywhale$159+$32K47% of 264
forgotmydinnernoise$110+$274K38% of 2,665
0xC03cE4d8Af842Ca6251Ac57228B3Ffb166ed50Awhale$80+$1.2M57% of 972
e46m3whale$64+$1.1M47% of 73,838
kneelbeforethekingnoise$56+$218K41% of 1,299
No
TraderPositionLifetime P&LWon
vzxcvczx$94-$1.0K59% of 34
xaxsaxabalanced$91+$59064% of 36
qrreqqbalanced$82+$21664% of 39
CadenSara$14-$440% of 10
Chengcheng1balanced$10+$18097% of 183
Every holder, the full history, and alerts when the smart money moves

Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.

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Questions

Who is betting on "Will Vinícius Júnior win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?"?

296 wallets hold a position worth $1.5K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 296 of them. The largest Yes holder is JustCrazy, with $159 on it, $32K lifetime profit over 264 markets (47% won). The largest No holder is vzxcvczx, with $94 on it, $1.0K lifetime loss over 34 markets (59% won).

What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Vinícius Júnior win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?"?

Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $1.1M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 27, 2026.

Which side is the smart money on?

91% of the money on Yes and 60% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 31 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 30 points. A week ago, Yes by 34 points.

When does this market end?

It is set to end on October 27, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.

Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.

Will Vinícius Júnior win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Who's betting on Polymarket · Polkyo