polkyo

Who's betting on “Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?”?

Sports · $6.2M volume · Ends October 27, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026

Polymarket prices Yes at 19¢ and No at 81¢, an 81% implied chance of No. $6.2M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 27, 2026.

54% of the money on Yes and 39% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 15 points. A day ago it was split. A week ago it was split.

1,550 wallets hold a position worth $1.2M in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,441 of them. The largest Yes holder is surfandturf, with $98K on it, $14K lifetime profit over 748 markets (53% won). The largest No holder is 0F62, with $140K on it, $268K lifetime loss over 1,296 markets (66% won).

2 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $845 on No; the insider radar has flagged 4 wallets betting $13K on Yes.

Yes19%
Smart money leans here
Smart money share
54% ▲ 18 pts 24 h
Holders
1,000
Money on it
$579K
Holders' winrate
58%
Snipers
0
Insider flags
4 · $13K
No81%
Smart money share
39% ▲ 1 pts 24 h
Holders
550
Money on it
$644K
Holders' winrate
72%
Snipers
2 · $845
Insider flags
0

The biggest holders on each side

Yes
TraderPositionLifetime P&LWon
surfandturfwhale$98K+$14K53% of 748
0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107whale$25K+$70K67% of 1,877
boyauwhale$14K+$744K48% of 663
aventadorsvr$12K+$0-
0x8F2Be9379E89755e558412900AA4235AB5E1E76D-1762565749993$9.9K-$12764% of 45
No
TraderPositionLifetime P&LWon
0F62$140K-$268K66% of 1,296
AZwater$83K-$62K95% of 210
DonaldinhoTrumpito$81K-$329K37% of 1,004
thoodrwhale$63K+$91K96% of 810
voyboylol$47K+$44100% of 1
Every holder, the full history, and alerts when the smart money moves

Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.

Open the full signal →Start free

More markets in Ballon d'Or Winner 2026

Who's betting on Ballon d'Or Winner 2026 →

Other big sports markets

Every big sports market →

Questions

Who is betting on "Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?"?

1,550 wallets hold a position worth $1.2M in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,441 of them. The largest Yes holder is surfandturf, with $98K on it, $14K lifetime profit over 748 markets (53% won). The largest No holder is 0F62, with $140K on it, $268K lifetime loss over 1,296 markets (66% won).

What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?"?

Polymarket prices Yes at 19¢ and No at 81¢, an 81% implied chance of No. $6.2M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 27, 2026.

Which side is the smart money on?

54% of the money on Yes and 39% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 15 points. A day ago it was split. A week ago it was split.

When does this market end?

It is set to end on October 27, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.

Is there insider betting on this market?

4 wallets on Yes ($13K) match the pattern of insider bets: a fresh or dormant wallet putting a lot on long odds. A flag is a pattern, not proof.

Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.

Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Who's betting on Polymarket · Polkyo