Who's betting on “Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?”?
Sports · $4.0M volume · Ends October 27, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $4.0M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 27, 2026.
62% of the money on Yes and 85% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 23 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 35 points. A week ago, No by 27 points.
1,090 wallets hold a position worth $133K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,075 of them. The largest Yes holder is surfandturf, with $752 on it, $14K lifetime profit over 748 markets (53% won). The largest No holder is 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107, with $71K on it, $70K lifetime profit over 1,877 markets (67% won).
4 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $28 on Yes; 1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $2.0K on No.
- Smart money share
- 62% ▲ 7 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 913
- Money on it
- $8.5K
- Holders' winrate
- 61%
- Snipers
- 4 · $28
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 85% ▼ 5 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 177
- Money on it
- $124K
- Holders' winrate
- 70%
- Snipers
- 1 · $2.0K
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| surfandturfwhale | $752 | +$14K | 53% of 748 |
| borja13whale | $707 | +$35K | 90% of 208 |
| Ed2357 | $492 | -$44K | 0% of 2 |
| TimeTravelerwhale | $452 | +$149K | 88% of 1,276 |
| joyboy7020 | $394 | -$1.2K | 45% of 62 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107whale | $71K | +$70K | 67% of 1,877 |
| tryingout1balanced | $19K | +$19K | 82% of 147 |
| LlamaEnjoyerwhale | $5.0K | +$266K | 79% of 259 |
| AZwater | $5.0K | -$62K | 95% of 210 |
| tiburonwhale | $3.6K | +$3.4K | 55% of 203 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Ballon d'Or Winner 2026
- Harry Kane$7.2M vol.Yes 70%No 30%Smart money: No
- Kylian Mbappé$6.2M vol.Yes 20%No 80%Smart money: Yes
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- Lamine Yamal$5.7M vol.Yes 9%No 91%Smart money: No
- Ousmane Dembélé$4.4M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Khvicha Kvaratskhelia$4.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Erling Haaland$3.7M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Fabian Ruiz$3.6M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Michael Olise$3.4M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Jude Bellingham$1.7M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Pau Cubarsi$1.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Vinícius Júnior$1.1M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Declan Rice$964K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- Vitinha$959K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Achraf Hakimi$768K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Bruno Fernandes$739K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Lautaro Martinez$510K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Luis Diaz$461K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?"?
1,090 wallets hold a position worth $133K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,075 of them. The largest Yes holder is surfandturf, with $752 on it, $14K lifetime profit over 748 markets (53% won). The largest No holder is 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107, with $71K on it, $70K lifetime profit over 1,877 markets (67% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $4.0M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 27, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
62% of the money on Yes and 85% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 23 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 35 points. A week ago, No by 27 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on October 27, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.