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Who's betting on “Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?”?

Politics · $2.3M volume · Ends November 4, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026

Polymarket prices Yes at 97¢ and No at 3¢, a 97% implied chance of Yes. $2.3M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.

88% of the money on Yes and 9% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 79 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 78 points. A week ago, Yes by 76 points.

1,360 wallets hold a position worth $658K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,360 of them. The largest Yes holder is Seutervoinen, with $38K on it, $130K lifetime profit over 513 markets (82% won). The largest No holder is 0x41b4…dad2, with $5.2K on it, $246 lifetime loss over 1 markets (0% won).

2 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $6 on Yes.

Yes97%
Smart money leans here
Smart money share
88%
Holders
1,000
Money on it
$651K
Holders' winrate
76%
Snipers
2 · $6
Insider flags
0
No3%
Smart money share
9%
Holders
360
Money on it
$6.7K
Holders' winrate
51%
Snipers
0
Insider flags
0

The biggest holders on each side

Yes
TraderPositionLifetime P&LWon
Seutervoinenwhale$38K+$130K82% of 513
wan123whale$35K+$1.2M79% of 273
AngryRhinowhale$34K+$25K78% of 226
thoodrwhale$33K+$91K96% of 810
elmcap2whale$30K+$2.1M86% of 1,083
No
TraderPositionLifetime P&LWon
0x41b4…dad2$5.2K-$2460% of 1
Juggz69$201-$8.4K0% of 1
0x2578…b2a6balanced$175+$3.1K59% of 107
0xa0f2…1848$169-$3.5M43% of 2,410
theNTM$108+$1.9K42% of 12
Every holder, the full history, and alerts when the smart money moves

Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.

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Questions

Who is betting on "Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?"?

1,360 wallets hold a position worth $658K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,360 of them. The largest Yes holder is Seutervoinen, with $38K on it, $130K lifetime profit over 513 markets (82% won). The largest No holder is 0x41b4…dad2, with $5.2K on it, $246 lifetime loss over 1 markets (0% won).

What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?"?

Polymarket prices Yes at 97¢ and No at 3¢, a 97% implied chance of Yes. $2.3M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.

Which side is the smart money on?

88% of the money on Yes and 9% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 79 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 78 points. A week ago, Yes by 76 points.

When does this market end?

It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.

Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.

Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Who's betting on Polymarket · Polkyo