Who's betting on “Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?”?
Politics · $1.4M volume · Ends November 4, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $1.4M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
73% of the money on Yes and 72% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago it was split.
385 wallets hold a position worth $17K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 384 of them. The largest Yes holder is Key-Sportsman, with $45 on it, $6.0K lifetime profit over 46 markets (57% won). The largest No holder is 0xheavy888, with $9.4K on it, $451K lifetime profit over 4,624 markets (72% won).
- Smart money share
- 73%
- Holders
- 250
- Money on it
- $235
- Holders' winrate
- 49%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 72%
- Holders
- 135
- Money on it
- $17K
- Holders' winrate
- 70%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| Key-Sportsmanwhale | $45 | +$6.0K | 57% of 46 |
| caviaronoise | $31 | +$6.5K | 43% of 209 |
| Fine-Tributary | $24 | -$500 | - |
| Chungvicularnoise | $9 | +$34K | 44% of 196 |
| 0x8bf8…b49b | $9 | - | - |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xheavy888whale | $9.4K | +$451K | 72% of 4,624 |
| 0x26B26AC3b434B12Ee2D5A3310b2F62cE38164486-1759170895273 | $3.0K | -$4.2K | 73% of 283 |
| Gohstwhale | $2.7K | +$295K | 47% of 1,044 |
| Extra-Large-Begonia | $1.3K | -$405K | 94% of 622 |
| we-are-the-world2 | $93 | -$863 | 68% of 244 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in California Governor Election Winner
- Tom Steyer$4.9M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Steve Hilton$3.6M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Xavier Becerra$2.3M vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- Alex Padilla$2.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Chad Bianco$2.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Kyle Langford$1.8M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Rick Caruso$1.8M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Nicole Shanahan$1.8M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Katie Porter$1.8M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Betty Yee$1.7M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Antonio Villaraigosa$1.6M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Stephen Cloobeck$1.6M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Kamala Harris$1.6M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- Toni Atkins$1.6M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Michael Younger$1.5M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Eric Swalwell$1.5M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Eleni Kounalakis$1.4M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Tony Thurmond$1.4M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Daniel Mercuri$1.4M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Butch Ware$1.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Elaine Culotti$1.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- Leo Zacky$1.1M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?"?
385 wallets hold a position worth $17K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 384 of them. The largest Yes holder is Key-Sportsman, with $45 on it, $6.0K lifetime profit over 46 markets (57% won). The largest No holder is 0xheavy888, with $9.4K on it, $451K lifetime profit over 4,624 markets (72% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $1.4M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
73% of the money on Yes and 72% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago it was split.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.