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Who's betting on “Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?”?

Politics · $1.8M volume · Ends November 4, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026

Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $1.8M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.

78% of the money on Yes and 13% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 65 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 56 points. A week ago, Yes by 56 points.

198 wallets hold a position worth $335 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 198 of them. The largest Yes holder is caviaro, with $94 on it, $6.5K lifetime profit over 209 markets (43% won). The largest No holder is tu78re, with $60 on it, $13 lifetime loss over 53 markets (40% won).

Yes0%
Smart money leans here
Smart money share
78%
Holders
150
Money on it
$226
Holders' winrate
41%
Snipers
0
Insider flags
0
No100%
Smart money share
13% ▼ 9 pts 24 h
Holders
48
Money on it
$109
Holders' winrate
52%
Snipers
0
Insider flags
0

The biggest holders on each side

Yes
TraderPositionLifetime P&LWon
caviaronoise$94+$6.5K43% of 209
pregamee$38-$2.1K30% of 145
gopaywhale$15+$1.1K60% of 218
puipui2486noise$12+$96K18% of 263
Biggggggggwhale$6+$705K46% of 5,954
No
TraderPositionLifetime P&LWon
tu78re$60-$1340% of 53
tumhhuhu$18-$1443% of 35
64MGX75VLQgrinder$12+$7.8K98% of 262
FlashTradeOracleTester$7-$3.0K88% of 243
tixxerolake$2-$85100% of 83
Every holder, the full history, and alerts when the smart money moves

Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.

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Questions

Who is betting on "Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?"?

198 wallets hold a position worth $335 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 198 of them. The largest Yes holder is caviaro, with $94 on it, $6.5K lifetime profit over 209 markets (43% won). The largest No holder is tu78re, with $60 on it, $13 lifetime loss over 53 markets (40% won).

What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?"?

Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $1.8M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.

Which side is the smart money on?

78% of the money on Yes and 13% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 65 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 56 points. A week ago, Yes by 56 points.

When does this market end?

It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.

Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.

Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Who's betting on Polymarket · Polkyo