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Who's betting on “Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026?”?

Politics · $1.4M volume · Ends November 4, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026

Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $1.4M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.

75% of the money on Yes and 30% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 45 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 45 points. A week ago, Yes by 45 points.

217 wallets hold a position worth $291 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 217 of them. The largest Yes holder is JustCrazy, with $66 on it, $32K lifetime profit over 264 markets (47% won). The largest No holder is byule, with $38 on it, $10 lifetime loss over 48 markets (48% won).

Yes0%
Smart money leans here
Smart money share
75%
Holders
164
Money on it
$225
Holders' winrate
42%
Snipers
0
Insider flags
0
No100%
Smart money share
30%
Holders
53
Money on it
$66
Holders' winrate
60%
Snipers
0
Insider flags
0

The biggest holders on each side

Yes
TraderPositionLifetime P&LWon
JustCrazywhale$66+$32K47% of 264
1BTCis1BTC$40-$2.6K12% of 300
BabyGrootwhale$26+$56K68% of 743
gopaywhale$15+$1.1K60% of 218
Biggggggggwhale$6+$705K46% of 5,954
No
TraderPositionLifetime P&LWon
byule$38-$1048% of 48
64MGX75VLQgrinder$16+$7.8K98% of 262
539a58$6-$840% of 77
giccon$2+$1100% of 42
Feetau$1-$219% of 27
Every holder, the full history, and alerts when the smart money moves

Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.

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Questions

Who is betting on "Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026?"?

217 wallets hold a position worth $291 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 217 of them. The largest Yes holder is JustCrazy, with $66 on it, $32K lifetime profit over 264 markets (47% won). The largest No holder is byule, with $38 on it, $10 lifetime loss over 48 markets (48% won).

What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026?"?

Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $1.4M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.

Which side is the smart money on?

75% of the money on Yes and 30% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 45 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 45 points. A week ago, Yes by 45 points.

When does this market end?

It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.

Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.

Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? Who's betting on Polymarket · Polkyo