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Who's betting on “Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026?”?

Politics · $1.6M volume · Ends November 4, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026

Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $1.6M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.

73% of the money on Yes and 93% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 20 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 20 points. A week ago, No by 20 points.

199 wallets hold a position worth $285 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 199 of them. The largest Yes holder is tripping, with $66 on it, $56K lifetime profit over 201 markets (60% won). The largest No holder is tracy49, with $30 on it, $27 lifetime profit over 49 markets (94% won).

Yes0%
Smart money share
73%
Holders
158
Money on it
$226
Holders' winrate
45%
Snipers
0
Insider flags
0
No100%
Smart money leans here
Smart money share
93%
Holders
41
Money on it
$59
Holders' winrate
92%
Snipers
0
Insider flags
0

The biggest holders on each side

Yes
TraderPositionLifetime P&LWon
trippingwhale$66+$56K60% of 201
pregamee$50-$2.1K30% of 145
caviaronoise$24+$6.5K43% of 209
gopaywhale$15+$1.1K60% of 218
puipui2486noise$7+$96K18% of 263
No
TraderPositionLifetime P&LWon
tracy49$30+$2794% of 49
64MGX75VLQgrinder$20+$7.8K98% of 262
pmbullwhale$3+$32568% of 240
giffilebogrinder$1+$190100% of 51
lorelessopatto$1-$2199% of 88
Every holder, the full history, and alerts when the smart money moves

Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.

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Questions

Who is betting on "Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026?"?

199 wallets hold a position worth $285 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 199 of them. The largest Yes holder is tripping, with $66 on it, $56K lifetime profit over 201 markets (60% won). The largest No holder is tracy49, with $30 on it, $27 lifetime profit over 49 markets (94% won).

What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026?"?

Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $1.6M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.

Which side is the smart money on?

73% of the money on Yes and 93% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 20 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 20 points. A week ago, No by 20 points.

When does this market end?

It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.

Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.

Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? Who's betting on Polymarket · Polkyo