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Who's betting on “Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026?”?

Politics · $1.8M volume · Ends November 4, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026

Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $1.8M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.

92% of the money on Yes and 5% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 87 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 87 points. A week ago, Yes by 88 points.

248 wallets hold a position worth $438 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 248 of them. The largest Yes holder is caviaro, with $139 on it, $6.5K lifetime profit over 209 markets (43% won). The largest No holder is lissartter, with $168 on it, $270K lifetime loss over 2,742 markets (56% won).

Yes0%
Smart money leans here
Smart money share
92%
Holders
191
Money on it
$225
Holders' winrate
44%
Snipers
0
Insider flags
0
No100%
Smart money share
5%
Holders
57
Money on it
$213
Holders' winrate
60%
Snipers
0
Insider flags
0

The biggest holders on each side

Yes
TraderPositionLifetime P&LWon
caviaronoise$139+$6.5K43% of 209
gopaywhale$9+$1.1K60% of 218
Biggggggggwhale$6+$705K46% of 5,954
e46m3whale$6+$1.1M47% of 73,977
puipui2486noise$6+$96K18% of 263
No
TraderPositionLifetime P&LWon
lissartter$168-$270K56% of 2,742
nnis$10-$160% of 2
rxfdguku$8-$16987% of 68
64MGX75VLQgrinder$8+$7.8K98% of 262
FlashTradeOracleTester$7-$3.0K88% of 243
Every holder, the full history, and alerts when the smart money moves

Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.

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Questions

Who is betting on "Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026?"?

248 wallets hold a position worth $438 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 248 of them. The largest Yes holder is caviaro, with $139 on it, $6.5K lifetime profit over 209 markets (43% won). The largest No holder is lissartter, with $168 on it, $270K lifetime loss over 2,742 markets (56% won).

What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026?"?

Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $1.8M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.

Which side is the smart money on?

92% of the money on Yes and 5% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 87 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 87 points. A week ago, Yes by 88 points.

When does this market end?

It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.

Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.

Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? Who's betting on Polymarket · Polkyo