Who's betting on “Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?”?
Politics · $3.6M volume · Ends November 4, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 3¢ and No at 97¢, a 97% implied chance of No. $3.6M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
54% of the money on Yes and 91% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 37 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 43 points. A week ago, No by 44 points.
949 wallets hold a position worth $813K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 947 of them. The largest Yes holder is Ferwhere, with $19K on it, $184K lifetime profit over 90 markets (19% won). The largest No holder is wan123, with $124K on it, $1.2M lifetime profit over 273 markets (79% won).
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $4.9K on No.
- Smart money share
- 54% ▲ 7 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 306
- Money on it
- $38K
- Holders' winrate
- 27%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 91% ▲ 1 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 643
- Money on it
- $775K
- Holders' winrate
- 73%
- Snipers
- 1 · $4.9K
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ferwherenoise | $19K | +$184K | 19% of 90 |
| 0x41b4…dad2 | $11K | -$246 | 0% of 1 |
| 0x5375…aeea | $1.5K | -$4.0M | 28% of 1,026 |
| 0x5Ec371C6c5210513F1b9F4B320d198A21858f154-1729908801879 | $856 | -$3.1K | 0% of 1 |
| 0xa0f2…1848 | $693 | -$3.5M | 43% of 2,410 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| wan123whale | $124K | +$1.2M | 79% of 273 |
| ArmageddonRewardsBillywhale | $85K | +$306K | 44% of 3,734 |
| chriszyy3whale | $58K | +$51K | 95% of 298 |
| AngryRhinowhale | $48K | +$25K | 78% of 226 |
| elmcap2whale | $36K | +$2.1M | 86% of 1,083 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in California Governor Election Winner
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- Toni Atkins$1.6M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
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- Eleni Kounalakis$1.4M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
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- Matt Mahan$1.4M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- Butch Ware$1.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Elaine Culotti$1.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- Leo Zacky$1.1M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?"?
949 wallets hold a position worth $813K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 947 of them. The largest Yes holder is Ferwhere, with $19K on it, $184K lifetime profit over 90 markets (19% won). The largest No holder is wan123, with $124K on it, $1.2M lifetime profit over 273 markets (79% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 3¢ and No at 97¢, a 97% implied chance of No. $3.6M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
54% of the money on Yes and 91% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 37 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 43 points. A week ago, No by 44 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.