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Who's betting on “Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?”?

Politics · $4.9M volume · Ends November 4, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026

Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $4.9M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.

83% of the money on Yes and 62% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 21 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 21 points. A week ago, Yes by 33 points.

1,186 wallets hold a position worth $64K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,185 of them. The largest Yes holder is lomneivan, with $41 on it, $133K lifetime profit over 59 markets (80% won). The largest No holder is 033033033, with $16K on it, $309K lifetime profit over 833 markets (100% won).

Yes0%
Smart money leans here
Smart money share
83%
Holders
783
Money on it
$258
Holders' winrate
67%
Snipers
0
Insider flags
0
No100%
Smart money share
62%
Holders
403
Money on it
$64K
Holders' winrate
89%
Snipers
0
Insider flags
0

The biggest holders on each side

Yes
TraderPositionLifetime P&LWon
lomneivanwhale$41+$133K80% of 59
flawfencewhale$38+$477K75% of 478
BabyGrootwhale$18+$56K68% of 743
LeopoldArschenbrennerwhale$13+$4.5K60% of 48
jocpoliticwhale$12+$67K69% of 113
No
TraderPositionLifetime P&LWon
033033033whale$16K+$309K100% of 833
danypotterbalanced$10.0K+$22K100% of 50
Miracle007$10.0K-$7.9K75% of 306
FDTpuissancebalanced$7.3K+$25K97% of 58
Extra-Large-Begonia$4.9K-$405K94% of 622
Every holder, the full history, and alerts when the smart money moves

Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.

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Questions

Who is betting on "Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?"?

1,186 wallets hold a position worth $64K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,185 of them. The largest Yes holder is lomneivan, with $41 on it, $133K lifetime profit over 59 markets (80% won). The largest No holder is 033033033, with $16K on it, $309K lifetime profit over 833 markets (100% won).

What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?"?

Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $4.9M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.

Which side is the smart money on?

83% of the money on Yes and 62% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 21 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 21 points. A week ago, Yes by 33 points.

When does this market end?

It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.

Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.

Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Who's betting on Polymarket · Polkyo