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Who's betting on “Will Sanae Takaichi be the next leader out before 2027?”?

Politics · $45K volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026

Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $45K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.

46% of the money on Yes and 84% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 38 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 38 points. A week ago, No by 39 points.

56 wallets hold a position worth $392 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 56 of them. The largest Yes holder is ConCaMap88, with $21 on it, $795 lifetime loss over 110 markets (41% won). The largest No holder is Elias.Thornwell, with $146 on it, $4.5K lifetime profit over 2,940 markets (69% won).

Yes0%
Smart money share
46%
Holders
49
Money on it
$90
Holders' winrate
44%
Snipers
0
Insider flags
0
No100%
Smart money leans here
Smart money share
84%
Holders
7
Money on it
$302
Holders' winrate
51%
Snipers
0
Insider flags
0

The biggest holders on each side

Yes
TraderPositionLifetime P&LWon
ConCaMap88$21-$79541% of 110
0x6528e4dfAE95B1a096C3ccE287Fb44C96C802006-1790896469009$17-$25439% of 28
50centsnoise$7+$5.6K34% of 378
0xDcfE3968345d3420ad63D6410a96C8C3aA31B7d3-1778156552428$7+$12456% of 9
planktonXDwhale$7+$131K76% of 5,427
No
TraderPositionLifetime P&LWon
Elias.Thornwellwhale$146+$4.5K69% of 2,940
donthackmenoise$108+$907K29% of 69,634
cigarettes$44-$4.2K46% of 42,466
daniel122134$4-$10K47% of 3,367
skyrocks$0-$42644% of 2,640
Every holder, the full history, and alerts when the smart money moves

Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.

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Questions

Who is betting on "Will Sanae Takaichi be the next leader out before 2027?"?

56 wallets hold a position worth $392 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 56 of them. The largest Yes holder is ConCaMap88, with $21 on it, $795 lifetime loss over 110 markets (41% won). The largest No holder is Elias.Thornwell, with $146 on it, $4.5K lifetime profit over 2,940 markets (69% won).

What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Sanae Takaichi be the next leader out before 2027?"?

Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $45K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.

Which side is the smart money on?

46% of the money on Yes and 84% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 38 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 38 points. A week ago, No by 39 points.

When does this market end?

It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.

Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.

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