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Who's betting on “Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the next leader out before 2027?”?

Politics · $38K volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 25, 2026

Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $38K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.

91% of the money on Yes and 99% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 8 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 85 points. A week ago, No by 9 points.

68 wallets hold a position worth $171 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 68 of them. The largest Yes holder is 50cents, with $20 on it, $5.6K lifetime profit over 378 markets (34% won). The largest No holder is cigarettes, with $89 on it, $2.3K lifetime profit over 42,699 markets (46% won).

Yes0%
Smart money share
91%
Holders
62
Money on it
$75
Holders' winrate
47%
Snipers
0
Insider flags
0
No100%
Smart money leans here
Smart money share
99% ▲ 93 pts 24 h
Holders
6
Money on it
$96
Holders' winrate
47%
Snipers
0
Insider flags
0

The biggest holders on each side

Yes
TraderPositionLifetime P&LWon
50centsnoise$20+$5.6K34% of 378
QMG-COREwhale$8+$87K73% of 1,173
0x1ff3…eb39balanced$5+$2.7K59% of 228
0xDcfE3968345d3420ad63D6410a96C8C3aA31B7d3-1778156552428$5+$12456% of 9
fiternoise$4+$46K16% of 769
No
TraderPositionLifetime P&LWon
cigaretteswhale$89+$2.3K46% of 42,699
Elias.Thornwellwhale$5+$4.5K69% of 2,943
0x05b2…c70d$1-$2753% of 276
Mojito9whale$0+$17K81% of 1,661
skyrocks$0-$42644% of 2,640
Every holder, the full history, and alerts when the smart money moves

Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.

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Questions

Who is betting on "Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the next leader out before 2027?"?

68 wallets hold a position worth $171 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 68 of them. The largest Yes holder is 50cents, with $20 on it, $5.6K lifetime profit over 378 markets (34% won). The largest No holder is cigarettes, with $89 on it, $2.3K lifetime profit over 42,699 markets (46% won).

What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the next leader out before 2027?"?

Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $38K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.

Which side is the smart money on?

91% of the money on Yes and 99% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 8 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 85 points. A week ago, No by 9 points.

When does this market end?

It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.

Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.

Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the next leader out before 2027? Who's betting on Polymarket · Polkyo