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Who's betting on “Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027?”?

Politics · $40K volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026

Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $40K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.

92% of the money on Yes and 3% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 90 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 88 points. A week ago, Yes by 7 points.

77 wallets hold a position worth $649 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 77 of them. The largest Yes holder is buoys, with $167 on it, $83K lifetime profit over 1,183 markets (46% won). The largest No holder is cigarettes, with $88 on it, $10K lifetime loss over 42,353 markets (46% won).

Yes2%
Smart money leans here
Smart money share
92% ▲ 2 pts 24 h
Holders
67
Money on it
$539
Holders' winrate
52%
Snipers
0
Insider flags
0
No98%
Smart money share
3%
Holders
10
Money on it
$110
Holders' winrate
52%
Snipers
0
Insider flags
0

The biggest holders on each side

Yes
TraderPositionLifetime P&LWon
buoyswhale$167+$83K46% of 1,183
QMG-COREwhale$54+$87K73% of 1,173
fiternoise$40+$46K16% of 769
whigwhale$36+$304K60% of 1,119
Ajjoolibalanced$30+$5.2K67% of 302
No
TraderPositionLifetime P&LWon
cigarettes$88-$10K46% of 42,353
kjhg6$7-$21477% of 128
keszkewmeszke$5-$87094% of 101
daniel122134$4-$10K47% of 3,367
0x539b…c64fgrinder$3+$7799% of 506
Every holder, the full history, and alerts when the smart money moves

Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.

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Questions

Who is betting on "Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027?"?

77 wallets hold a position worth $649 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 77 of them. The largest Yes holder is buoys, with $167 on it, $83K lifetime profit over 1,183 markets (46% won). The largest No holder is cigarettes, with $88 on it, $10K lifetime loss over 42,353 markets (46% won).

What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027?"?

Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $40K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.

Which side is the smart money on?

92% of the money on Yes and 3% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 90 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 88 points. A week ago, Yes by 7 points.

When does this market end?

It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.

Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.

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