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Who's betting on “Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the next leader out before 2027?”?

Politics · $42K volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026

Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $42K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.

43% of the money on Yes and 52% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 10 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 10 points. A week ago, No by 34 points.

64 wallets hold a position worth $523 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 64 of them. The largest Yes holder is SuperDog23, with $72 on it, $5.3K lifetime loss over 179 markets (27% won). The largest No holder is Elias.Thornwell, with $147 on it, $4.5K lifetime profit over 2,940 markets (69% won).

Yes0%
Smart money share
43%
Holders
56
Money on it
$136
Holders' winrate
36%
Snipers
0
Insider flags
0
No100%
Smart money leans here
Smart money share
52%
Holders
8
Money on it
$387
Holders' winrate
71%
Snipers
0
Insider flags
0

The biggest holders on each side

Yes
TraderPositionLifetime P&LWon
SuperDog23$72-$5.3K27% of 179
fiternoise$16+$46K16% of 769
paddaawhale$6+$283K58% of 1,436
0x1ff3…eb39balanced$5+$2.7K59% of 228
LornaPredictsnoise$5+$30K29% of 10,707
No
TraderPositionLifetime P&LWon
Elias.Thornwellwhale$147+$4.5K69% of 2,940
rafb$90-$43482% of 222
cigarettes$89-$5.6K46% of 42,516
vitaliypole$55+$14100% of 22
daniel122134$4-$10K47% of 3,367
Every holder, the full history, and alerts when the smart money moves

Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.

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Questions

Who is betting on "Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the next leader out before 2027?"?

64 wallets hold a position worth $523 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 64 of them. The largest Yes holder is SuperDog23, with $72 on it, $5.3K lifetime loss over 179 markets (27% won). The largest No holder is Elias.Thornwell, with $147 on it, $4.5K lifetime profit over 2,940 markets (69% won).

What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the next leader out before 2027?"?

Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $42K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.

Which side is the smart money on?

43% of the money on Yes and 52% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 10 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 10 points. A week ago, No by 34 points.

When does this market end?

It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.

Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.

Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the next leader out before 2027? Who's betting on Polymarket · Polkyo