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Who's betting on “Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027?”?

Politics · $51K volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026

Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $51K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.

75% of the money on Yes and 58% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 17 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 17 points. A week ago, No by 8 points.

100 wallets hold a position worth $728 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 99 of them. The largest Yes holder is ConCaMap88, with $48 on it, $795 lifetime loss over 110 markets (41% won). The largest No holder is fluttyplump, with $102 on it, $316 lifetime profit over 93 markets (76% won).

Yes2%
Smart money leans here
Smart money share
75%
Holders
87
Money on it
$466
Holders' winrate
54%
Snipers
0
Insider flags
0
No98%
Smart money share
58%
Holders
13
Money on it
$261
Holders' winrate
62%
Snipers
0
Insider flags
0

The biggest holders on each side

Yes
TraderPositionLifetime P&LWon
ConCaMap88$48-$79541% of 110
QMG-COREwhale$47+$87K73% of 1,173
0x1ff3…eb39balanced$41+$2.7K59% of 228
flawfencewhale$34+$477K75% of 478
fiternoise$33+$46K16% of 769
No
TraderPositionLifetime P&LWon
fluttyplumpbalanced$102+$31676% of 93
cigarettes$88-$4.2K46% of 42,466
hspje89grinder$18+$4100% of 244
gonnakilmyslf$17-$1.8K45% of 2,074
asdfasdf11balanced$10+$82244% of 3,878
Every holder, the full history, and alerts when the smart money moves

Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.

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Questions

Who is betting on "Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027?"?

100 wallets hold a position worth $728 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 99 of them. The largest Yes holder is ConCaMap88, with $48 on it, $795 lifetime loss over 110 markets (41% won). The largest No holder is fluttyplump, with $102 on it, $316 lifetime profit over 93 markets (76% won).

What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027?"?

Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $51K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.

Which side is the smart money on?

75% of the money on Yes and 58% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 17 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 17 points. A week ago, No by 8 points.

When does this market end?

It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.

Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.

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