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Who's betting on “Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the next leader out before 2027?”?

Politics · $51K volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026

Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $51K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.

93% of the money on Yes and 34% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 59 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 58 points. A week ago it was split.

72 wallets hold a position worth $394 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 71 of them. The largest Yes holder is Kaiser1885, with $53 on it, $752 lifetime profit over 16 markets (88% won). The largest No holder is cigarettes, with $89 on it, $5.6K lifetime loss over 42,516 markets (46% won).

Yes1%
Smart money leans here
Smart money share
93%
Holders
59
Money on it
$225
Holders' winrate
56%
Snipers
0
Insider flags
0
No99%
Smart money share
34%
Holders
13
Money on it
$169
Holders' winrate
56%
Snipers
0
Insider flags
0

The biggest holders on each side

Yes
TraderPositionLifetime P&LWon
Kaiser1885$53+$75288% of 16
fiternoise$45+$46K16% of 769
garbagecollect2whale$33+$29K64% of 1,583
QMG-COREwhale$19+$87K73% of 1,173
AJSVwhale$14+$218K41% of 102,753
No
TraderPositionLifetime P&LWon
cigarettes$89-$5.6K46% of 42,516
Elias.Thornwellwhale$33+$4.5K69% of 2,940
rafb$18-$43482% of 222
asdf112dbalanced$10+$34146% of 4,056
ddd1d43balanced$10+$39945% of 3,968
Every holder, the full history, and alerts when the smart money moves

Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.

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Questions

Who is betting on "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the next leader out before 2027?"?

72 wallets hold a position worth $394 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 71 of them. The largest Yes holder is Kaiser1885, with $53 on it, $752 lifetime profit over 16 markets (88% won). The largest No holder is cigarettes, with $89 on it, $5.6K lifetime loss over 42,516 markets (46% won).

What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the next leader out before 2027?"?

Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $51K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.

Which side is the smart money on?

93% of the money on Yes and 34% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 59 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 58 points. A week ago it was split.

When does this market end?

It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.

Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the next leader out before 2027? Who's betting on Polymarket · Polkyo