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Who's betting on “Will Gavin Newsom be the next leader out before 2027?”?

Politics · $42K volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026

Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $42K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.

60% of the money on Yes and 7% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 53 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 53 points. A week ago it was split.

60 wallets hold a position worth $99 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 60 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x6528e4dfAE95B1a096C3ccE287Fb44C96C802006-1790896469009, with $11 on it, $254 lifetime loss over 28 markets (39% won). The largest No holder is rafb, with $23 on it, $434 lifetime loss over 222 markets (82% won).

Yes0%
Smart money leans here
Smart money share
60%
Holders
51
Money on it
$45
Holders' winrate
51%
Snipers
0
Insider flags
0
No100%
Smart money share
7%
Holders
9
Money on it
$55
Holders' winrate
64%
Snipers
0
Insider flags
0

The biggest holders on each side

Yes
TraderPositionLifetime P&LWon
0x6528e4dfAE95B1a096C3ccE287Fb44C96C802006-1790896469009$11-$25439% of 28
0x009c…c09d$6+$9100% of 6
50centsnoise$5+$5.6K34% of 378
0x1ff3…eb39balanced$4+$2.7K59% of 228
ConCaMap88$4-$79541% of 110
No
TraderPositionLifetime P&LWon
rafb$23-$43482% of 222
cigarettes$20-$10K46% of 42,353
0x05b2…c70d$4-$2753% of 276
daniel122134$4-$10K47% of 3,367
0x539b…c64fgrinder$3+$7799% of 506
Every holder, the full history, and alerts when the smart money moves

Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.

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Questions

Who is betting on "Will Gavin Newsom be the next leader out before 2027?"?

60 wallets hold a position worth $99 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 60 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x6528e4dfAE95B1a096C3ccE287Fb44C96C802006-1790896469009, with $11 on it, $254 lifetime loss over 28 markets (39% won). The largest No holder is rafb, with $23 on it, $434 lifetime loss over 222 markets (82% won).

What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Gavin Newsom be the next leader out before 2027?"?

Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $42K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.

Which side is the smart money on?

60% of the money on Yes and 7% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 53 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 53 points. A week ago it was split.

When does this market end?

It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.

Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.

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