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Who's betting on “Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election?”?

Politics · $10M volume · Ends November 8, 2028 · Updated October 24, 2026

Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $10M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 8, 2028.

84% of the money on Yes and 36% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 47 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 55 points. A week ago, Yes by 60 points.

471 wallets hold a position worth $2.6K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 468 of them. The largest Yes holder is asdfadfasdf1, with $250 on it, $29K lifetime profit over 3 markets (100% won). The largest No holder is marcusbranch, with $101 on it, $10 lifetime loss over 44 markets (20% won).

Yes0%
Smart money leans here
Smart money share
84%
Holders
322
Money on it
$1.4K
Holders' winrate
55%
Snipers
0
Insider flags
0
No100%
Smart money share
36% ▲ 8 pts 24 h
Holders
149
Money on it
$1.3K
Holders' winrate
64%
Snipers
0
Insider flags
0

The biggest holders on each side

Yes
TraderPositionLifetime P&LWon
asdfadfasdf1$250+$29K100% of 3
Yelowyolonoise$225+$5.3K46% of 200
0x91784d82fbe4543459ee85fc9809be185d70a2bnoise$90+$44K39% of 340
Carwhale$85+$1.5M58% of 1,670
PolyOGbalanced$65+$26K59% of 37
No
TraderPositionLifetime P&LWon
marcusbranch$101-$1020% of 44
ychurch$94-$2014% of 92
phaNNtom$60-$358% of 52
26213b$60-$14090% of 112
DJHANNAgrinder$50+$38396% of 200
Every holder, the full history, and alerts when the smart money moves

Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.

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Questions

Who is betting on "Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election?"?

471 wallets hold a position worth $2.6K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 468 of them. The largest Yes holder is asdfadfasdf1, with $250 on it, $29K lifetime profit over 3 markets (100% won). The largest No holder is marcusbranch, with $101 on it, $10 lifetime loss over 44 markets (20% won).

What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election?"?

Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $10M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 8, 2028.

Which side is the smart money on?

84% of the money on Yes and 36% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 47 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 55 points. A week ago, Yes by 60 points.

When does this market end?

It is set to end on November 8, 2028. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.

Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.

Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Who's betting on Polymarket · Polkyo