Who's betting on “Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?”?
Politics · $14M volume · Ends November 8, 2028 · Updated October 25, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 13¢ and No at 87¢, an 87% implied chance of No. $14M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 8, 2028.
52% of the money on Yes and 74% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 22 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 27 points. A week ago, No by 33 points.
1,999 wallets hold a position worth $523K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,996 of them. The largest Yes holder is machbut, with $55K on it, $16K lifetime profit over 39 markets (54% won). The largest No holder is 11122, with $37K on it, $629K lifetime profit over 1,113 markets (42% won).
The insider radar has flagged 1 wallet betting $8.5K on Yes.
- Smart money share
- 52%
- Holders
- 1,000
- Money on it
- $364K
- Holders' winrate
- 63%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 1 · $8.5K
- Smart money share
- 74% ▼ 5 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 999
- Money on it
- $159K
- Holders' winrate
- 59%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| machbutnoise | $55K | +$16K | 54% of 39 |
| aaaaaaaaaa | $33K | -$4.8K | 60% of 127 |
| crystal2021 | $20K | +$18K | 100% of 1 |
| Basemeta2 | $19K | -$4.4K | 42% of 12 |
| Katello | $19K | -$1.1M | 93% of 27 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11122noise | $37K | +$629K | 42% of 1,113 |
| lastminwin | $26K | -$10K | 57% of 7 |
| Zptmlbalanced | $17K | +$34K | 69% of 58 |
| tsihkodiiveswhale | $13K | +$26K | 83% of 476 |
| bifurcatiobalanced | $13K | +$857 | 77% of 115 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Presidential Election Winner 2028
- LeBron James$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Tim Walz$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Kim Kardashian$40M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Vivek Ramaswamy$38M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Tulsi Gabbard$36M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Greg Abbott$35M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Stephen Smith$34M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- Nikki Haley$30M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Glenn Youngkin$29M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Elon Musk$27M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- Zohran Mamdani$22M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Michelle Obama$19M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- Andy Beshear$19M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: Yes
- Eric Trump$19M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Gavin Newsom$19M vol.Yes 11%No 89%Smart money: Yes
- JD Vance$17M vol.Yes 20%No 80%Smart money: No
- Gretchen Whitmer$16M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- Tucker Carlson$14M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Donald Trump Jr.$14M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- JB Pritzker$13M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- Marco Rubio$13M vol.Yes 9%No 91%Smart money split
- Wes Moore$13M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- Ron DeSantis$13M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Jamie Dimon$11M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$75M vol.Yes 20%No 81%Smart money: No
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?"?
1,999 wallets hold a position worth $523K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,996 of them. The largest Yes holder is machbut, with $55K on it, $16K lifetime profit over 39 markets (54% won). The largest No holder is 11122, with $37K on it, $629K lifetime profit over 1,113 markets (42% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 13¢ and No at 87¢, an 87% implied chance of No. $14M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 8, 2028.
Which side is the smart money on?
52% of the money on Yes and 74% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 22 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 27 points. A week ago, No by 33 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 8, 2028. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Is there insider betting on this market?
1 wallet on Yes ($8.5K) match the pattern of insider bets: a fresh or dormant wallet putting a lot on long odds. A flag is a pattern, not proof.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.