Who's betting on “Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?”?
Politics · $19M volume · Ends November 8, 2028 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 10¢ and No at 90¢, a 90% implied chance of No. $19M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 8, 2028.
66% of the money on Yes and 53% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 13 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 12 points. A week ago it was split.
1,999 wallets hold a position worth $467K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,998 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x3D84c9478F783C950B6E3259072FA706cC66086B-1750353270695, with $39K on it, $16K lifetime profit over 19 markets (89% won). The largest No holder is lastminwin, with $48K on it, $10K lifetime loss over 7 markets (57% won).
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $403 on Yes.
- Smart money share
- 66%
- Holders
- 1,000
- Money on it
- $291K
- Holders' winrate
- 67%
- Snipers
- 1 · $403
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 53% ▼ 2 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 999
- Money on it
- $176K
- Holders' winrate
- 60%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x3D84c9478F783C950B6E3259072FA706cC66086B-1750353270695 | $39K | +$16K | 89% of 19 |
| gopfan2whale | $19K | +$1.7M | 79% of 1,012 |
| tugator | $13K | -$6.4K | 48% of 1,059 |
| Sweaty-Clam-Hikingnoise | $10K | +$12K | 47% of 73 |
| cqswhale | $10K | +$309K | 66% of 400 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| lastminwin | $48K | -$10K | 57% of 7 |
| JetXBTcnwhale | $31K | +$1.4K | 52% of 155 |
| risk-managerwhale | $23K | +$196K | 59% of 1,007 |
| Zptmlbalanced | $10K | +$34K | 69% of 58 |
| Ideal | $6.0K | -$4.8K | 68% of 183 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?"?
1,999 wallets hold a position worth $467K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,998 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x3D84c9478F783C950B6E3259072FA706cC66086B-1750353270695, with $39K on it, $16K lifetime profit over 19 markets (89% won). The largest No holder is lastminwin, with $48K on it, $10K lifetime loss over 7 markets (57% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 10¢ and No at 90¢, a 90% implied chance of No. $19M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 8, 2028.
Which side is the smart money on?
66% of the money on Yes and 53% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 13 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 12 points. A week ago it was split.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 8, 2028. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.