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Who's betting on “Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?”?

Politics · $17M volume · Ends November 8, 2028 · Updated October 24, 2026

Polymarket prices Yes at 21¢ and No at 79¢, a 79% implied chance of No. $17M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 8, 2028.

40% of the money on Yes and 65% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 25 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 26 points. A week ago, No by 26 points.

1,999 wallets hold a position worth $1.1M in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,997 of them. The largest Yes holder is 98better, with $120K on it, $254 lifetime profit over 2 markets (50% won). The largest No holder is 11122, with $100K on it, $630K lifetime profit over 1,111 markets (42% won).

Yes21%
Smart money share
40%
Holders
1,000
Money on it
$661K
Holders' winrate
68%
Snipers
0
Insider flags
0
No79%
Smart money leans here
Smart money share
65%
Holders
999
Money on it
$429K
Holders' winrate
56%
Snipers
0
Insider flags
0

The biggest holders on each side

Yes
TraderPositionLifetime P&LWon
98better$120K+$25450% of 2
woshiLimpeh$98K-$125K82% of 448
nextdayoff$52K-$18860% of 5
0x312Ee6A5878a5582e8f96700E6268171BF9D8604-1773448361331$52K-$110K0% of 4
Monopoly_Money$33K-$115K78% of 241
No
TraderPositionLifetime P&LWon
11122noise$100K+$630K42% of 1,111
lastminwin$89K-$10K57% of 7
TeamA$61K+$49K100% of 1
hammerdream$14K+$5.3K0% of 1
Odysseus7whale$14K+$2.3K69% of 756
Every holder, the full history, and alerts when the smart money moves

Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.

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Questions

Who is betting on "Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?"?

1,999 wallets hold a position worth $1.1M in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,997 of them. The largest Yes holder is 98better, with $120K on it, $254 lifetime profit over 2 markets (50% won). The largest No holder is 11122, with $100K on it, $630K lifetime profit over 1,111 markets (42% won).

What are the Polymarket odds for "Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?"?

Polymarket prices Yes at 21¢ and No at 79¢, a 79% implied chance of No. $17M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 8, 2028.

Which side is the smart money on?

40% of the money on Yes and 65% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 25 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 26 points. A week ago, No by 26 points.

When does this market end?

It is set to end on November 8, 2028. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.

Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.