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Who's betting on “Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?”?

Politics · $14M volume · Ends November 8, 2028 · Updated October 24, 2026

Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $14M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 8, 2028.

14% of the money on Yes and 34% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 20 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 21 points. A week ago, No by 23 points.

1,229 wallets hold a position worth $45K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,228 of them. The largest Yes holder is AF2028, with $25K on it, $80K lifetime loss over 32 markets (47% won). The largest No holder is publicgold, with $591 on it, $1.2K lifetime loss over 71 markets (63% won).

Yes1%
Smart money share
14%
Holders
531
Money on it
$39K
Holders' winrate
50%
Snipers
0
Insider flags
0
No99%
Smart money leans here
Smart money share
34%
Holders
698
Money on it
$5.9K
Holders' winrate
59%
Snipers
0
Insider flags
0

The biggest holders on each side

Yes
TraderPositionLifetime P&LWon
AF2028$25K-$80K47% of 32
lastminwin$1.6K-$10K57% of 7
GayPridewhale$962+$648K80% of 670
tugator$777-$6.4K48% of 1,059
Provo44$754-$26787% of 23
No
TraderPositionLifetime P&LWon
publicgold$591-$1.2K63% of 71
zizhulin$591-$30451% of 74
ncaawinnerwinner$276+$1.5K100% of 14
UKGamer$232-$3271% of 17
Gracea$209-$1238% of 29
Every holder, the full history, and alerts when the smart money moves

Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.

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Questions

Who is betting on "Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?"?

1,229 wallets hold a position worth $45K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,228 of them. The largest Yes holder is AF2028, with $25K on it, $80K lifetime loss over 32 markets (47% won). The largest No holder is publicgold, with $591 on it, $1.2K lifetime loss over 71 markets (63% won).

What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?"?

Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $14M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 8, 2028.

Which side is the smart money on?

14% of the money on Yes and 34% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 20 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 21 points. A week ago, No by 23 points.

When does this market end?

It is set to end on November 8, 2028. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.

Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.

Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Who's betting on Polymarket · Polkyo