Who's betting on “Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?”?
Politics · $14M volume · Ends November 8, 2028 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 3¢ and No at 97¢, a 97% implied chance of No. $14M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 8, 2028.
60% of the money on Yes and 36% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 24 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 23 points. A week ago, Yes by 16 points.
1,909 wallets hold a position worth $105K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,909 of them. The largest Yes holder is baddestofthemall, with $14K on it, $0 lifetime profit. The largest No holder is Pog, with $9.7K on it, $1.4K lifetime loss over 338 markets (79% won).
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $79 on Yes.
- Smart money share
- 60%
- Holders
- 910
- Money on it
- $79K
- Holders' winrate
- 65%
- Snipers
- 1 · $79
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 36% ▼ 1 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 999
- Money on it
- $26K
- Holders' winrate
- 67%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| baddestofthemall | $14K | +$0 | - |
| Brokiewhale | $9.3K | +$180K | 59% of 906 |
| RememberAmalekwhale | $5.9K | +$837K | 73% of 1,102 |
| laganza | $5.7K | +$3.5K | 100% of 2 |
| scottiliciouswhale | $3.7K | +$1.5M | 83% of 1,009 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pog | $9.7K | -$1.4K | 79% of 338 |
| Haradwaith | $2.5K | -$334K | 50% of 45,555 |
| xiamms | $2.5K | +$192 | 75% of 8 |
| 0x4e25…d7a7whale | $2.4K | +$252K | 59% of 1,000 |
| ScottyNooowhale | $1.8K | +$891K | 48% of 1,533 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?"?
1,909 wallets hold a position worth $105K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,909 of them. The largest Yes holder is baddestofthemall, with $14K on it, $0 lifetime profit. The largest No holder is Pog, with $9.7K on it, $1.4K lifetime loss over 338 markets (79% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 3¢ and No at 97¢, a 97% implied chance of No. $14M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 8, 2028.
Which side is the smart money on?
60% of the money on Yes and 36% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 24 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 23 points. A week ago, Yes by 16 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 8, 2028. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.