Who's betting on “Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?”?
Politics · $16M volume · Ends November 8, 2028 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 44¢ and No at 56¢, a 56% implied chance of No. $16M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 8, 2028.
80% of the money on Yes and 48% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 32 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 32 points. A week ago, Yes by 46 points.
1,999 wallets hold a position worth $1.4M in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,997 of them. The largest Yes holder is 98better, with $263K on it, $254 lifetime profit over 2 markets (50% won). The largest No holder is bifurcatio, with $14K on it, $466 lifetime profit over 114 markets (76% won).
2 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $759 on Yes; 2 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $1.3K on No.
- Smart money share
- 80%
- Holders
- 1,000
- Money on it
- $1.2M
- Holders' winrate
- 64%
- Snipers
- 2 · $759
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 48%
- Holders
- 999
- Money on it
- $133K
- Holders' winrate
- 65%
- Snipers
- 2 · $1.3K
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 98better | $263K | +$254 | 50% of 2 |
| Brokiewhale | $146K | +$180K | 59% of 906 |
| hosewhale | $67K | +$58K | 54% of 275 |
| GCottrell93noise | $65K | +$3.5M | 49% of 35 |
| Pog | $54K | -$1.4K | 79% of 338 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| bifurcatiobalanced | $14K | +$466 | 76% of 114 |
| 0x21a22c9e1d5E3f92D680C49aFad87f40bc055f83-1768570519514 | $7.2K | -$155K | 81% of 27 |
| baran-ludomanwhale | $6.2K | +$96K | 50% of 169 |
| Polybius | $5.6K | -$3.2K | 48% of 171 |
| 0x5039…946d | $5.6K | -$3.1K | 59% of 555 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?"?
1,999 wallets hold a position worth $1.4M in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,997 of them. The largest Yes holder is 98better, with $263K on it, $254 lifetime profit over 2 markets (50% won). The largest No holder is bifurcatio, with $14K on it, $466 lifetime profit over 114 markets (76% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 44¢ and No at 56¢, a 56% implied chance of No. $16M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 8, 2028.
Which side is the smart money on?
80% of the money on Yes and 48% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 32 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 32 points. A week ago, Yes by 46 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 8, 2028. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.