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Who's betting on “Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?”?

Politics · $20M volume · Ends November 8, 2028 · Updated October 24, 2026

Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $20M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 8, 2028.

93% of the money on Yes and 66% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 27 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 23 points. A week ago, Yes by 32 points.

1,027 wallets hold a position worth $80K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,027 of them. The largest Yes holder is bernardbulletin, with $15K on it, $189K lifetime profit over 1,110 markets (75% won). The largest No holder is J-E-R, with $3.4K on it, $249K lifetime profit over 642 markets (52% won).

Yes2%
Smart money leans here
Smart money share
93%
Holders
268
Money on it
$64K
Holders' winrate
53%
Snipers
0
Insider flags
0
No98%
Smart money share
66% ▼ 4 pts 24 h
Holders
759
Money on it
$16K
Holders' winrate
60%
Snipers
0
Insider flags
0

The biggest holders on each side

Yes
TraderPositionLifetime P&LWon
bernardbulletinwhale$15K+$189K75% of 1,110
Chungvicularnoise$9.2K+$34K44% of 196
11122noise$8.2K+$630K42% of 1,111
Brokiewhale$7.7K+$180K59% of 906
ifyoulovemewhale$5.4K+$14K49% of 471
No
TraderPositionLifetime P&LWon
J-E-Rwhale$3.4K+$249K52% of 642
basedciganywhale$2.9K+$6.7K51% of 207
madd1s0nbalanced$686+$1.1K66% of 65
jinjianxibalanced$427+$11087% of 47
hIhObazbalanced$399+$10873% of 22
Every holder, the full history, and alerts when the smart money moves

Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.

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Questions

Who is betting on "Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?"?

1,027 wallets hold a position worth $80K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,027 of them. The largest Yes holder is bernardbulletin, with $15K on it, $189K lifetime profit over 1,110 markets (75% won). The largest No holder is J-E-R, with $3.4K on it, $249K lifetime profit over 642 markets (52% won).

What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?"?

Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $20M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 8, 2028.

Which side is the smart money on?

93% of the money on Yes and 66% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 27 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 23 points. A week ago, Yes by 32 points.

When does this market end?

It is set to end on November 8, 2028. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.

Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.

Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Who's betting on Polymarket · Polkyo