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Who's betting on “Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?”?

Politics · $32M volume · Ends November 8, 2028 · Updated October 24, 2026

Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $32M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 8, 2028.

96% of the money on Yes and 52% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 44 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 44 points. A week ago, Yes by 32 points.

708 wallets hold a position worth $12K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 708 of them. The largest Yes holder is alohajp, with $1.7K on it, $429 lifetime profit over 39 markets (44% won). The largest No holder is rdba, with $3.4K on it, $485K lifetime profit over 248 markets (71% won).

Yes0%
Smart money leans here
Smart money share
96%
Holders
377
Money on it
$3.9K
Holders' winrate
57%
Snipers
0
Insider flags
0
No100%
Smart money share
52%
Holders
331
Money on it
$7.9K
Holders' winrate
58%
Snipers
0
Insider flags
0

The biggest holders on each side

Yes
TraderPositionLifetime P&LWon
alohajpnoise$1.7K+$42944% of 39
pizzabillgates$941+$75K81% of 16
risk-managerwhale$551+$196K59% of 1,007
Brokiewhale$456+$180K59% of 906
0xB886580698eDE4b18DE3E446b2D8Da8bCEdd81B3-1767532547794whale$18+$35K49% of 1,032
No
TraderPositionLifetime P&LWon
rdbawhale$3.4K+$485K71% of 248
tugator$1.2K-$6.4K48% of 1,059
nesetarbuziley$491-$73365% of 26
huffjames$105-$723% of 47
lynchsean$104-$320% of 40
Every holder, the full history, and alerts when the smart money moves

Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.

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Questions

Who is betting on "Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?"?

708 wallets hold a position worth $12K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 708 of them. The largest Yes holder is alohajp, with $1.7K on it, $429 lifetime profit over 39 markets (44% won). The largest No holder is rdba, with $3.4K on it, $485K lifetime profit over 248 markets (71% won).

What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?"?

Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $32M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 8, 2028.

Which side is the smart money on?

96% of the money on Yes and 52% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 44 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 44 points. A week ago, Yes by 32 points.

When does this market end?

It is set to end on November 8, 2028. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.

Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.

Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Who's betting on Polymarket · Polkyo