Who's betting on “Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?”?
Politics · $9.7M volume · Ends November 8, 2028 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $9.7M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 8, 2028.
68% of the money on Yes and 34% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 34 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 34 points. A week ago, Yes by 30 points.
1,920 wallets hold a position worth $98K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,919 of them. The largest Yes holder is Brokie, with $6.0K on it, $180K lifetime profit over 906 markets (59% won). The largest No holder is Ideal, with $7.9K on it, $4.8K lifetime loss over 183 markets (68% won).
- Smart money share
- 68%
- Holders
- 921
- Money on it
- $52K
- Holders' winrate
- 54%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 34%
- Holders
- 999
- Money on it
- $47K
- Holders' winrate
- 66%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brokiewhale | $6.0K | +$180K | 59% of 906 |
| beachboy4whale | $4.8K | +$5.8M | 56% of 232 |
| failstobernoise | $4.7K | +$431K | 34% of 1,003 |
| zephyrax | $3.1K | +$1.2K | 75% of 4 |
| ddalkkakwhale | $2.5K | +$105K | 50% of 582 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ideal | $7.9K | -$4.8K | 68% of 183 |
| pegfault | $6.2K | -$9.9K | 80% of 44 |
| imakebigbetswhale | $6.0K | +$4.8K | 78% of 400 |
| BasedJonStewartbalanced | $3.8K | +$9.2K | 62% of 193 |
| WALLYFIGHTS | $2.9K | -$112K | 73% of 387 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
- Byron Donalds$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Mike Pence$44M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- John Thune$38M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Kristi Noem$38M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Sarah Huckabee Sanders$36M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Tom Brady$33M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Elon Musk$32M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Katie Britt$29M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Kim Kardashian$29M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- Elise Stefanik$28M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Steve Bannon$23M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Greg Abbott$22M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Matt Gaetz$21M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Josh Hawley$20M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Rand Paul$20M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Ted Cruz$20M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: Yes
- Erika Kirk$19M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Brian Kemp$18M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr.$17M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Vivek Ramaswamy$16M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- J.D. Vance$16M vol.Yes 44%No 56%Smart money: Yes
- Ron DeSantis$16M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: Yes
- Tulsi Gabbard$14M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Tucker Carlson$14M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: Yes
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$75M vol.Yes 19%No 81%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?"?
1,920 wallets hold a position worth $98K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,919 of them. The largest Yes holder is Brokie, with $6.0K on it, $180K lifetime profit over 906 markets (59% won). The largest No holder is Ideal, with $7.9K on it, $4.8K lifetime loss over 183 markets (68% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $9.7M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 8, 2028.
Which side is the smart money on?
68% of the money on Yes and 34% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 34 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 34 points. A week ago, Yes by 30 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 8, 2028. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.