Who's betting on “US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3?”?
The historically profitable money is split between the sides: neither is clearly ahead.
- Volume
- $422K traded all time
- Held now
- $175K by 233 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 91% 107 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 87% 110 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 5¢ and No at 95¢, a 95% implied chance of No. $422K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
The smart money
91% of the money on Yes and 87% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides.
Who holds it
233 wallets hold a position worth $175K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 217 of them. The largest Yes holder is yen4u, with $2.6K on it, $95K lifetime profit over 1,538 markets (94% won). The largest No holder is Contestable-Parfait, with $65K on it, $139K lifetime profit over 729 markets (57% won).
Sharp money
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $760 on Yes; 2 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $7.2K on No.
- Holders
- 112
- Money on it
- $12K
- Holders' win rate
- 72%
- Snipers
- 1 · $760
- Holders
- 121
- Money on it
- $162K
- Holders' win rate
- 61%
- Snipers
- 2 · $7.2K
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$12K on it
- 1yen4u94% won of 1,538 · whale$2.6K+$95K lifetime
- 2Hakei.71% won of 1,046 · whale$2.3K+$90K lifetime
- 30xFc2F4f50ce2F6045d35558A5E2D8d4b2aC6610c7-176909700745166% won of 619 · whale$880+$221K lifetime
- 4Hilsbils67% won of 3$822+$133 lifetime
- 50xc54DD852Ab86e409C69667F6295780b753C88be1-177113632115487% won of 657 · sniper$760+$20K lifetime
No$162K on it
- 1Contestable-Parfait57% won of 729 · whale$65K+$139K lifetime
- 2tr100043% won of 1,072$12K−$3.6K lifetime
- 30xdamocles68% won of 280 · whale$11K+$71K lifetime
- 4arjennnnn66% won of 1,426 · whale$9.5K+$69K lifetime
- 5hugecaulk85% won of 27 · balanced$8.3K+$23K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
24 more- October 31$10M vol.Yes 75%No 25%Smart money: No
- November 2$1.8M vol.Yes 76%No 24%Smart money split
- November 5$159K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Too little scored money to compare
- November 6$112K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Too little scored money to compare
- November 7$95K vol.Yes 4%No 97%Too little scored money to compare
- October 22$3.7M vol. · ClosedResolved YesToo little scored money to compare
- September 30$2.5M vol. · ClosedResolved YesToo little scored money to compare
- October 15$2.1M vol. · ClosedResolved YesToo little scored money to compare
- October 12$2.0M vol. · ClosedResolved YesToo little scored money to compare
- October 28$1.9M vol. · ClosedResolved YesToo little scored money to compare
- October 24$1.9M vol. · ClosedResolved YesToo little scored money to compare
- November 8$1.6M vol. · ClosedResolved NoToo little scored money to compare
- November 30$1.3M vol. · ClosedResolved NoToo little scored money to compare
- December 31$1.2M vol. · ClosedResolved NoToo little scored money to compare
- November 15$1.1M vol. · ClosedResolved NoToo little scored money to compare
- October 17$766K vol. · ClosedResolved YesToo little scored money to compare
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?$734K vol. · ClosedResolved YesToo little scored money to compare
- November 4$693K vol. · ClosedResolved NoToo little scored money to compare
- October 18$657K vol. · ClosedResolved YesToo little scored money to compare
- October 7$524K vol. · ClosedResolved YesToo little scored money to compare
- October 16$428K vol. · ClosedResolved YesToo little scored money to compare
- November 22$352K vol. · ClosedResolved NoToo little scored money to compare
- October 9$345K vol. · ClosedResolved YesToo little scored money to compare
- October 5$135K vol. · ClosedResolved YesToo little scored money to compare
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$77M vol.Yes 18%No 83%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$46M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
Questions
Who is betting on "US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3?"?
233 wallets hold a position worth $175K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 217 of them. The largest Yes holder is yen4u, with $2.6K on it, $95K lifetime profit over 1,538 markets (94% won). The largest No holder is Contestable-Parfait, with $65K on it, $139K lifetime profit over 729 markets (57% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 5¢ and No at 95¢, a 95% implied chance of No. $422K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
91% of the money on Yes and 87% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.