Who's betting on “US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?”?
Smart money leans No: 87% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 14 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $13K traded all time
- Held now
- $9.4K by 43 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 73% 23 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 87% 17 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 92¢ and No at 9¢, a 92% implied chance of Yes. $13K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 5, 2026.
The smart money
73% of the money on Yes and 87% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 14 points.
Who holds it
43 wallets hold a position worth $9.4K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 40 of them. The largest Yes holder is laureman, with $3.7K on it, $7.0K lifetime profit over 280 markets (70% won). The largest No holder is classified, with $519 on it, $984K lifetime profit over 1,494 markets (58% won).
- Holders
- 24
- Money on it
- $8.6K
- Holders' win rate
- 67%
- Holders
- 19
- Money on it
- $803
- Holders' win rate
- 55%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$8.6K on it
- 1laureman70% won of 280 · whale$3.7K+$7.0K lifetime
- 2DooBieZ55% won of 1,106 · whale$1.4K+$6.5K lifetime
- 3Haradwaith50% won of 54,248$1.3K−$378K lifetime
- 4MrNoItAll90% won of 514 · whale$847+$38K lifetime
- 5AlAhmeda71% won of 1,367$608−$96K lifetime
No$803 on it
- 1classified58% won of 1,494 · whale$519+$984K lifetime
- 2Owjgejliw51% won of 161$54−$2.3K lifetime
- 3mrtwix64% won of 56$38+$46 lifetime
- 40xfc56…7c65no record yet$31
- 5LornaPredicts28% won of 16,103 · noise$26+$28K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
20 more- October 31$7.5M vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money split
- October 28$1.6M vol.Yes 100%No 0%Smart money split
- November 30$984K vol.Yes 39%No 61%Smart money: No
- December 31$842K vol.Yes 28%No 72%Smart money: Yes
- November 15$655K vol.Yes 58%No 42%Smart money: No
- November 8$561K vol.Yes 82%No 19%Smart money: Yes
- November 22$149K vol.Yes 46%No 55%Smart money: Yes
- November 2$49K vol.Yes 95%No 5%Smart money: Yes
- October 22$3.7M vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money split
- September 30$2.5M vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: No
- October 15$2.1M vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: No
- October 12$2.0M vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: No
- October 24$1.9M vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- October 17$766K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?$734K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money split
- October 18$657K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- October 7$524K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: No
- October 16$428K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- October 9$345K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- October 5$135K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$76M vol.Yes 18%No 83%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?"?
43 wallets hold a position worth $9.4K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 40 of them. The largest Yes holder is laureman, with $3.7K on it, $7.0K lifetime profit over 280 markets (70% won). The largest No holder is classified, with $519 on it, $984K lifetime profit over 1,494 markets (58% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 92¢ and No at 9¢, a 92% implied chance of Yes. $13K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 5, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
73% of the money on Yes and 87% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 14 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 5, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.