Who's betting on “US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 87% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 82 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $48K traded all time
- Held now
- $30K by 56 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 87% 41 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 4% 14 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 94¢ and No at 6¢, a 94% implied chance of Yes. $48K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 3, 2026.
The smart money
87% of the money on Yes and 4% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 82 points.
Who holds it
56 wallets hold a position worth $30K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 55 of them. The largest Yes holder is classified, with $9.9K on it, $984K lifetime profit over 1,494 markets (58% won). The largest No holder is 0xf57d…7e56, with $997 on it.
Sharp money
The insider radar has flagged 1 wallet betting $1.3K on No.
- Holders
- 41
- Money on it
- $28K
- Holders' win rate
- 55%
- Holders
- 15
- Money on it
- $1.7K
- Holders' win rate
- 45%
- Insider flags
- 1 · $1.3K
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$28K on it
- 1classified58% won of 1,494 · whale$9.9K+$984K lifetime
- 2DooBieZ55% won of 1,106 · whale$8.5K+$6.5K lifetime
- 30xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-177694439549523% won of 12,163 · noise$2.0K+$335K lifetime
- 4balabalababalabala75% won of 318$1.4K−$58K lifetime
- 5sdhyky60% won of 1,117 · whale$1.1K+$34K lifetime
No$1.7K on it
- 10xf57d…7e56no record yet$997
- 2ThorsHummer0% won of 2$453−$2.0K lifetime
- 3SHAMEN10100% won of 1$84−$42 lifetime
- 4SPLPB29% won of 4,321$65−$16K lifetime
- 5Megalomania52% won of 65$28−$83 lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
20 more- October 31$7.5M vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money split
- October 28$1.6M vol.Yes 100%No 0%Smart money split
- November 30$983K vol.Yes 40%No 61%Smart money: No
- December 31$842K vol.Yes 28%No 72%Smart money: Yes
- November 15$654K vol.Yes 59%No 42%Smart money: No
- November 8$560K vol.Yes 82%No 19%Smart money: Yes
- November 22$147K vol.Yes 46%No 55%Smart money: Yes
- November 4$12K vol.Yes 92%No 9%Smart money: No
- October 22$3.7M vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money split
- September 30$2.5M vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: No
- October 15$2.1M vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: No
- October 12$2.0M vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: No
- October 24$1.9M vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- October 17$766K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?$734K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money split
- October 18$657K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- October 7$524K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: No
- October 16$428K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- October 9$345K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- October 5$135K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$76M vol.Yes 18%No 83%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?"?
56 wallets hold a position worth $30K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 55 of them. The largest Yes holder is classified, with $9.9K on it, $984K lifetime profit over 1,494 markets (58% won). The largest No holder is 0xf57d…7e56, with $997 on it.
What are the Polymarket odds for "US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 94¢ and No at 6¢, a 94% implied chance of Yes. $48K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 3, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
87% of the money on Yes and 4% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 82 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 3, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Is there insider betting on this market?
1 wallet on No ($1.3K) match the pattern of insider bets: a fresh or dormant wallet putting a lot on long odds. A flag is a pattern, not proof.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.