Who's betting on geopolitics on Polymarket?
23 open markets with $46M traded, each with the odds and where the profitable wallets sit.
Biggest geopolitics events
Open markets
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?$16M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?$5.5M vol.Yes 9%No 92%Smart money split
- NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?$4.1M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: Yes
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?$3.5M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$3.4M vol.Yes 18%No 82%Smart money: Yes
- Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?$2.0M vol.Yes 100%No 0%Smart money: Yes
- Cuban regime falls in 2026?$1.8M vol.Yes 12%No 89%Smart money: No
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?$1.4M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: Yes
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?$1.4M vol.Yes 14%No 87%Smart money: Yes
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?$1.2M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$1.1M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: Yes
- Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?$689K vol.Yes 5%No 95%Smart money split
- China x Philippines military clash before 2027?$552K vol.Yes 23%No 78%Smart money: Yes
- Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?$483K vol.Yes 11%No 90%Smart money: No
- Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?$452K vol.Yes 5%No 95%Smart money: No
- Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?$449K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: Yes
- Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?$441K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money split
- Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?$393K vol.Yes 9%No 92%Smart money split
- UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026?$355K vol.Yes 6%No 94%Smart money: No
- Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?$341K vol.Yes 8%No 92%Smart money split
- Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?$338K vol.Yes 31%No 70%Smart money: No
- NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026?$335K vol.Yes 8%No 93%Smart money: Yes
- Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026?$329K vol.Yes 60%No 40%Smart money: Yes
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