Who's betting on “China x Philippines military clash before 2027?”?
Geopolitics · $552K volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 23¢ and No at 78¢, a 78% implied chance of No. $552K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
97% of the money on Yes and 64% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 33 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 33 points. A week ago, Yes by 33 points.
498 wallets hold a position worth $365K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 497 of them. The largest Yes holder is LlamaLoco0000, with $68K on it, $348K lifetime profit over 297 markets (45% won). The largest No holder is SlenderMan, with $73K on it, $215K lifetime loss over 576 markets (68% won).
- Smart money share
- 97%
- Holders
- 142
- Money on it
- $82K
- Holders' winrate
- 47%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 64%
- Holders
- 356
- Money on it
- $283K
- Holders' winrate
- 69%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| LlamaLoco0000noise | $68K | +$348K | 45% of 297 |
| aenews2whale | $4.3K | +$2.3M | 73% of 1,114 |
| Gohstwhale | $2.7K | +$295K | 47% of 1,044 |
| Carwhale | $1.4K | +$1.5M | 58% of 1,670 |
| 0x154506893D8Ea9BcdF2A875a7A6CFe810e173599-1771680135006 | $875 | -$6.5K | 16% of 19 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| SlenderMan | $73K | -$215K | 68% of 576 |
| hdlisme-acc2 | $38K | +$2.1K | 100% of 1 |
| i400whale | $30K | +$90K | 72% of 710 |
| budu100whale | $19K | +$7.4K | 67% of 145 |
| 0xffd3E7102CA12796beAD452B06117e2100D27C75-1761894446910balanced | $15K | +$11K | 70% of 91 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
Other big geopolitics markets
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?$16M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?$5.5M vol.Yes 9%No 92%Smart money split
- NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?$4.1M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: Yes
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?$3.5M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$3.4M vol.Yes 19%No 82%Smart money: Yes
- Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?$2.1M vol.Yes 100%No 0%Smart money: Yes
- Cuban regime falls in 2026?$1.8M vol.Yes 13%No 87%Smart money: No
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?$1.4M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "China x Philippines military clash before 2027?"?
498 wallets hold a position worth $365K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 497 of them. The largest Yes holder is LlamaLoco0000, with $68K on it, $348K lifetime profit over 297 markets (45% won). The largest No holder is SlenderMan, with $73K on it, $215K lifetime loss over 576 markets (68% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "China x Philippines military clash before 2027?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 23¢ and No at 78¢, a 78% implied chance of No. $552K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
97% of the money on Yes and 64% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 33 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 33 points. A week ago, Yes by 33 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.