Who's betting on “US strike on Cuba by December 31?”?
Geopolitics · $5.5M volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 9¢ and No at 92¢, a 92% implied chance of No. $5.5M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
83% of the money on Yes and 84% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago it was split.
2,000 wallets hold a position worth $350K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 2,000 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0xB886580698eDE4b18DE3E446b2D8Da8bCEdd81B3-1767532547794, with $6.3K on it, $35K lifetime profit over 1,032 markets (49% won). The largest No holder is Jan777, with $62K on it, $74K lifetime profit over 150 markets (95% won).
2 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $1.1K on No.
- Smart money share
- 83%
- Holders
- 1,000
- Money on it
- $30K
- Holders' winrate
- 54%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 84%
- Holders
- 1,000
- Money on it
- $320K
- Holders' winrate
- 76%
- Snipers
- 2 · $1.1K
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xB886580698eDE4b18DE3E446b2D8Da8bCEdd81B3-1767532547794whale | $6.3K | +$35K | 49% of 1,032 |
| de5nutswhale | $3.8K | +$154K | 46% of 307 |
| operationcastlewhale | $1.8K | +$545K | 49% of 1,002 |
| 0x71e1…45f0whale | $1.5K | +$77K | 60% of 645 |
| aenews2whale | $1.1K | +$2.3M | 73% of 1,114 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan777whale | $62K | +$74K | 95% of 150 |
| Anjunwhale | $28K | +$787K | 66% of 1,833 |
| apmtwhale | $20K | +$87K | 77% of 105 |
| Kevindotowhale | $18K | +$582K | 79% of 724 |
| dfdvbjgdhbh | $14K | -$10K | 65% of 20 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
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- Cuban regime falls in 2026?$1.8M vol.Yes 12%No 89%Smart money: No
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- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?$1.4M vol.Yes 14%No 87%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "US strike on Cuba by December 31?"?
2,000 wallets hold a position worth $350K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 2,000 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0xB886580698eDE4b18DE3E446b2D8Da8bCEdd81B3-1767532547794, with $6.3K on it, $35K lifetime profit over 1,032 markets (49% won). The largest No holder is Jan777, with $62K on it, $74K lifetime profit over 150 markets (95% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "US strike on Cuba by December 31?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 9¢ and No at 92¢, a 92% implied chance of No. $5.5M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
83% of the money on Yes and 84% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago it was split.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.