Who's betting on “NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?”?
Geopolitics · $4.1M volume · Ends November 1, 2026 · Updated October 25, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $4.1M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
92% of the money on Yes and 40% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 53 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 53 points. A week ago, Yes by 51 points.
1,452 wallets hold a position worth $1.0M in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,438 of them. The largest Yes holder is tetrose, with $5.5K on it, $210K lifetime profit over 565 markets (55% won). The largest No holder is 0x16bb…8492, with $193K on it, $178K lifetime loss over 921 markets (95% won).
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $5 on Yes; 1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $2.0K on No.
- Smart money share
- 92%
- Holders
- 452
- Money on it
- $23K
- Holders' winrate
- 58%
- Snipers
- 1 · $5
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 40%
- Holders
- 1,000
- Money on it
- $1.0M
- Holders' winrate
- 75%
- Snipers
- 1 · $2.0K
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| tetrosewhale | $5.5K | +$210K | 55% of 565 |
| betwickwhale | $4.0K | +$625K | 56% of 767 |
| Mapleskynoise | $2.4K | +$7.3K | 42% of 66 |
| aenews2whale | $1.8K | +$2.3M | 73% of 1,114 |
| tetrasewhale | $750 | +$966K | 65% of 1,187 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x16bb…8492 | $193K | -$178K | 95% of 921 |
| SlenderMan | $131K | -$215K | 68% of 576 |
| 0xdea2…e981whale | $79K | +$31K | 67% of 24 |
| 0x9e3ed7b661a903fc97afcf49e0f014ebe869f882-1783406009396 | $52K | -$3.8M | 47% of 70,884 |
| anoin123 | $34K | -$4.9M | 60% of 1,460 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in NATO x Russia military clash by...?
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- Xi Jinping out before 2027?$16M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
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- Cuban regime falls in 2026?$1.8M vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money: No
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?$1.4M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: Yes
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?$1.4M vol.Yes 14%No 87%Smart money: Yes
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?$1.2M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
Questions
Who is betting on "NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?"?
1,452 wallets hold a position worth $1.0M in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,438 of them. The largest Yes holder is tetrose, with $5.5K on it, $210K lifetime profit over 565 markets (55% won). The largest No holder is 0x16bb…8492, with $193K on it, $178K lifetime loss over 921 markets (95% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $4.1M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
92% of the money on Yes and 40% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 53 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 53 points. A week ago, Yes by 51 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 1, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.