Who's betting on “Xi Jinping out before 2027?”?
Geopolitics · $16M volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 3¢ and No at 97¢, a 97% implied chance of No. $16M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
3% of the money on Yes and 63% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 60 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 60 points. A week ago, No by 60 points.
1,733 wallets hold a position worth $4.2M in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,721 of them. The largest Yes holder is rollsrolls, with $22K on it, $30K lifetime loss over 20 markets (20% won). The largest No holder is onekey02, with $323K on it, $37K lifetime profit over 467 markets (96% won).
3 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $5.5K on No; the insider radar has flagged 1 wallet betting $4.8K on Yes.
- Smart money share
- 3%
- Holders
- 733
- Money on it
- $138K
- Holders' winrate
- 33%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 1 · $4.8K
- Smart money share
- 63%
- Holders
- 1,000
- Money on it
- $4.0M
- Holders' winrate
- 84%
- Snipers
- 3 · $5.5K
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| rollsrolls | $22K | -$30K | 20% of 20 |
| Aurelian9 | $21K | -$3.4K | 25% of 8 |
| 0x4fc18862c662dd391BeEd8E4Df257bDaC04284a7-1770212261553 | $19K | -$2.5K | 100% of 1 |
| krikcrok | $16K | -$277K | 100% of 1 |
| Leon8899 | $8.9K | -$3.3K | 60% of 20 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| onekey02whale | $323K | +$37K | 96% of 467 |
| elmcap2whale | $231K | +$2.1M | 86% of 1,081 |
| 0xrcwhale | $152K | +$29K | 85% of 348 |
| uycghj4whale | $132K | +$2.0K | 73% of 80 |
| 0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952 | $106K | -$160K | 83% of 887 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
Other big geopolitics markets
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?$5.5M vol.Yes 9%No 92%Smart money split
- NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?$4.1M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: Yes
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?$3.5M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$3.4M vol.Yes 18%No 82%Smart money: Yes
- Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?$2.0M vol.Yes 100%No 0%Smart money: Yes
- Cuban regime falls in 2026?$1.8M vol.Yes 12%No 89%Smart money: No
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?$1.4M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: Yes
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?$1.4M vol.Yes 14%No 87%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Xi Jinping out before 2027?"?
1,733 wallets hold a position worth $4.2M in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,721 of them. The largest Yes holder is rollsrolls, with $22K on it, $30K lifetime loss over 20 markets (20% won). The largest No holder is onekey02, with $323K on it, $37K lifetime profit over 467 markets (96% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Xi Jinping out before 2027?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 3¢ and No at 97¢, a 97% implied chance of No. $16M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
3% of the money on Yes and 63% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 60 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 60 points. A week ago, No by 60 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Is there insider betting on this market?
1 wallet on Yes ($4.8K) match the pattern of insider bets: a fresh or dormant wallet putting a lot on long odds. A flag is a pattern, not proof.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.