Who's betting on “China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?”?
Geopolitics · $3.5M volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 4¢ and No at 96¢, a 96% implied chance of No. $3.5M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
50% of the money on Yes and 71% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 21 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 21 points. A week ago, No by 22 points.
1,728 wallets hold a position worth $691K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,724 of them. The largest Yes holder is LlamaLoco0000, with $4.0K on it, $348K lifetime profit over 297 markets (45% won). The largest No holder is 0xrc, with $119K on it, $29K lifetime profit over 348 markets (85% won).
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $1 on Yes; 2 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $385 on No.
- Smart money share
- 50%
- Holders
- 997
- Money on it
- $25K
- Holders' winrate
- 55%
- Snipers
- 1 · $1
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 71%
- Holders
- 731
- Money on it
- $666K
- Holders' winrate
- 77%
- Snipers
- 2 · $385
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| LlamaLoco0000noise | $4.0K | +$348K | 45% of 297 |
| Crypto4thewin | $2.9K | -$573 | 75% of 4 |
| caspersmc | $2.7K | +$0 | - |
| 0xB886580698eDE4b18DE3E446b2D8Da8bCEdd81B3-1767532547794whale | $1.6K | +$35K | 49% of 1,032 |
| aenews2whale | $1.4K | +$2.3M | 73% of 1,114 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xrcwhale | $119K | +$29K | 85% of 348 |
| Whitelied91whale | $97K | +$89K | 68% of 22 |
| -0-noise | $56K | +$10K | 58% of 24 |
| 247525 | $46K | -$32K | 95% of 1,031 |
| po18503 | $25K | -$6.6K | 94% of 33 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
Other big geopolitics markets
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?$16M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?$5.5M vol.Yes 9%No 92%Smart money split
- NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?$4.1M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: Yes
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$3.4M vol.Yes 18%No 82%Smart money: Yes
- Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?$2.0M vol.Yes 100%No 0%Smart money: Yes
- Cuban regime falls in 2026?$1.8M vol.Yes 12%No 89%Smart money: No
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?$1.4M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: Yes
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?$1.4M vol.Yes 14%No 87%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?"?
1,728 wallets hold a position worth $691K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,724 of them. The largest Yes holder is LlamaLoco0000, with $4.0K on it, $348K lifetime profit over 297 markets (45% won). The largest No holder is 0xrc, with $119K on it, $29K lifetime profit over 348 markets (85% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 4¢ and No at 96¢, a 96% implied chance of No. $3.5M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
50% of the money on Yes and 71% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 21 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 21 points. A week ago, No by 22 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.