Who's betting on “NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?”?
Geopolitics · $3.4M volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 19¢ and No at 82¢, an 82% implied chance of No. $3.4M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
87% of the money on Yes and 61% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 26 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 29 points. A week ago, Yes by 25 points.
1,635 wallets hold a position worth $851K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,626 of them. The largest Yes holder is LlamaLoco0000, with $60K on it, $348K lifetime profit over 297 markets (45% won). The largest No holder is pereira12, with $76K on it, $52K lifetime loss over 48 markets (79% won).
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $4 on Yes; 5 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $11K on No.
- Smart money share
- 87%
- Holders
- 635
- Money on it
- $153K
- Holders' winrate
- 55%
- Snipers
- 1 · $4
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 61% ▲ 3 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 1,000
- Money on it
- $698K
- Holders' winrate
- 78%
- Snipers
- 5 · $11K
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| LlamaLoco0000noise | $60K | +$348K | 45% of 297 |
| betwickwhale | $18K | +$636K | 56% of 767 |
| aenews2whale | $15K | +$2.3M | 73% of 1,114 |
| tetrosewhale | $14K | +$213K | 55% of 565 |
| inrock30 | $4.3K | -$208K | 53% of 94 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| pereira12 | $76K | -$52K | 79% of 48 |
| thoodrwhale | $60K | +$91K | 96% of 810 |
| onekey02whale | $54K | +$37K | 96% of 468 |
| 0x16bb…8492 | $50K | -$99K | 95% of 903 |
| sbimbgwhale | $35K | +$99K | 84% of 1,344 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in NATO x Russia military clash by...?
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- Xi Jinping out before 2027?$16M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
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- Cuban regime falls in 2026?$1.8M vol.Yes 13%No 87%Smart money: No
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?$1.4M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: Yes
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?$1.4M vol.Yes 14%No 87%Smart money: Yes
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?$1.2M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
Questions
Who is betting on "NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?"?
1,635 wallets hold a position worth $851K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,626 of them. The largest Yes holder is LlamaLoco0000, with $60K on it, $348K lifetime profit over 297 markets (45% won). The largest No holder is pereira12, with $76K on it, $52K lifetime loss over 48 markets (79% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 19¢ and No at 82¢, an 82% implied chance of No. $3.4M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
87% of the money on Yes and 61% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 26 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 29 points. A week ago, Yes by 25 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.