Who's betting on “Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?”?
Geopolitics · $1.2M volume · Ends October 31, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $1.2M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 31, 2026.
46% of the money on Yes and 81% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 35 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 35 points. A week ago, No by 47 points.
447 wallets hold a position worth $254K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 446 of them. The largest Yes holder is gambler13, with $410 on it, $18K lifetime loss over 205 markets (45% won). The largest No holder is hopedieslast, with $47K on it, $260K lifetime profit over 233 markets (61% won).
2 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $6.8K on No.
- Smart money share
- 46% ▲ 1 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 166
- Money on it
- $2.3K
- Holders' winrate
- 53%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 81%
- Holders
- 281
- Money on it
- $251K
- Holders' winrate
- 75%
- Snipers
- 2 · $6.8K
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| gambler13 | $410 | -$18K | 45% of 205 |
| Fesfouss | $212 | -$32K | 58% of 255 |
| WCBT | $176 | -$39K | 87% of 103 |
| tetrosewhale | $136 | +$213K | 55% of 565 |
| TheReturnOfDarthMaulwhale | $135 | +$1.5M | 60% of 1,014 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| hopedieslastwhale | $47K | +$260K | 61% of 233 |
| TerreMotowhale | $23K | +$57K | 80% of 254 |
| nonkenny90whale | $20K | +$74K | 93% of 1,375 |
| MonacoLover | $17K | -$49K | 67% of 114 |
| KrackenSrusterwhale | $16K | +$273K | 66% of 904 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?
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Questions
Who is betting on "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?"?
447 wallets hold a position worth $254K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 446 of them. The largest Yes holder is gambler13, with $410 on it, $18K lifetime loss over 205 markets (45% won). The largest No holder is hopedieslast, with $47K on it, $260K lifetime profit over 233 markets (61% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $1.2M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 31, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
46% of the money on Yes and 81% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 35 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 35 points. A week ago, No by 47 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on October 31, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.