Who's betting on “Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2027?”?
Geopolitics · $22K volume · Ends April 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 27¢ and No at 74¢, a 74% implied chance of No. $22K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on April 1, 2027.
93% of the money on Yes and 76% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 17 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 17 points.
54 wallets hold a position worth $9.4K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 52 of them. The largest Yes holder is Car, with $1.9K on it, $1.5M lifetime profit over 1,670 markets (58% won). The largest No holder is KrackenSruster, with $3.3K on it, $273K lifetime profit over 904 markets (66% won).
- Smart money share
- 93%
- Holders
- 25
- Money on it
- $2.5K
- Holders' winrate
- 56%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 76%
- Holders
- 29
- Money on it
- $6.9K
- Holders' winrate
- 64%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carwhale | $1.9K | +$1.5M | 58% of 1,670 |
| Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedwhale | $265 | +$154K | 56% of 13,103 |
| MementoFund | $102 | -$2.7K | 37% of 76 |
| mad4xbalanced | $37 | +$2.3K | 52% of 1,175 |
| rocky42023 | $27 | -$18K | 52% of 1,163 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| KrackenSrusterwhale | $3.3K | +$273K | 66% of 904 |
| lissartter | $1.1K | -$270K | 56% of 2,742 |
| controlswhale | $1.0K | +$51K | 81% of 827 |
| Digital-Boy | $277 | -$77K | 15% of 1,974 |
| serfererbalanced | $204 | +$73 | 61% of 194 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?
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Questions
Who is betting on "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2027?"?
54 wallets hold a position worth $9.4K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 52 of them. The largest Yes holder is Car, with $1.9K on it, $1.5M lifetime profit over 1,670 markets (58% won). The largest No holder is KrackenSruster, with $3.3K on it, $273K lifetime profit over 904 markets (66% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2027?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 27¢ and No at 74¢, a 74% implied chance of No. $22K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on April 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
93% of the money on Yes and 76% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 17 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 17 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on April 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.