Who's betting on “Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2027?”?
Geopolitics · $28K volume · Ends January 1, 2028 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 53¢ and No at 48¢, a 53% implied chance of Yes. $28K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2028.
70% of the money on Yes and 53% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 17 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 23 points.
60 wallets hold a position worth $7.2K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 58 of them. The largest Yes holder is Car, with $2.0K on it, $1.5M lifetime profit over 1,670 markets (58% won). The largest No holder is KrackenSruster, with $722 on it, $273K lifetime profit over 904 markets (66% won).
- Smart money share
- 70% ▼ 4 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 23
- Money on it
- $3.8K
- Holders' winrate
- 59%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 53% ▲ 1 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 37
- Money on it
- $3.4K
- Holders' winrate
- 60%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carwhale | $2.0K | +$1.5M | 58% of 1,670 |
| 0xef7c0e6Db325CC24fcB4A9A66FBc26de236774eB-1768455479838 | $553 | -$219 | 57% of 21 |
| 0x6bd2671189761274417e66D1F6a834ecdBb695f6-1761995156221balanced | $420 | +$2.8K | 93% of 350 |
| T3tK1ng | $245 | -$192 | 67% of 6 |
| 15billionplus | $131 | -$11K | 13% of 1,217 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| KrackenSrusterwhale | $722 | +$273K | 66% of 904 |
| controlswhale | $620 | +$51K | 81% of 827 |
| lissartter | $428 | -$270K | 56% of 2,742 |
| OneLastHurrah | $345 | -$17K | 28% of 1,023 |
| rocky42023 | $245 | -$18K | 52% of 1,163 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?
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- China x Japan military clash before 2027?$1.4M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2027?"?
60 wallets hold a position worth $7.2K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 58 of them. The largest Yes holder is Car, with $2.0K on it, $1.5M lifetime profit over 1,670 markets (58% won). The largest No holder is KrackenSruster, with $722 on it, $273K lifetime profit over 904 markets (66% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2027?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 53¢ and No at 48¢, a 53% implied chance of Yes. $28K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2028.
Which side is the smart money on?
70% of the money on Yes and 53% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 17 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 23 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2028. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.