Who's betting on “Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?”?
Geopolitics · $2.0M volume · Ends November 1, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 100¢ and No at 0¢, a 100% implied chance of Yes. $2.0M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
98% of the money on Yes and 44% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 54 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 30 points. A week ago, Yes by 46 points.
522 wallets hold a position worth $950K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 500 of them. The largest Yes holder is 033033033, with $297K on it, $309K lifetime profit over 833 markets (100% won). The largest No holder is Charcoal19, with $76 on it, $116 lifetime loss.
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $120 on Yes; 1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $0 on No.
- Smart money share
- 98% ▲ 4 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 183
- Money on it
- $950K
- Holders' winrate
- 83%
- Snipers
- 1 · $120
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 44% ▼ 20 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 339
- Money on it
- $475
- Holders' winrate
- 48%
- Snipers
- 1 · $0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 033033033whale | $297K | +$309K | 100% of 833 |
| Carwhale | $145K | +$1.5M | 58% of 1,670 |
| bondorwhale | $142K | +$9.2K | 100% of 33 |
| SmallFishInWhaleStomachwhale | $92K | +$96K | 78% of 222 |
| Snow-Whitewhale | $53K | +$5.6K | 66% of 913 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charcoal19 | $76 | -$116 | - |
| 0x50ea…010f | $50 | -$2.1K | 27% of 181 |
| 20260601whale | $40 | +$11K | 48% of 316 |
| drax1371 | $35 | +$1 | 100% of 1 |
| y13oficial | $32 | -$7.1K | 39% of 121 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?
- September 30$182K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- December 31$93K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: No
- November 30$90K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: No
- October 15$89K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
Who's betting on Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...? →
Other big geopolitics markets
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?$16M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?$5.5M vol.Yes 9%No 92%Smart money split
- NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?$4.1M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: Yes
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?$3.5M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$3.4M vol.Yes 19%No 82%Smart money: Yes
- Cuban regime falls in 2026?$1.8M vol.Yes 13%No 87%Smart money: No
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?$1.4M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: Yes
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?$1.4M vol.Yes 14%No 87%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?"?
522 wallets hold a position worth $950K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 500 of them. The largest Yes holder is 033033033, with $297K on it, $309K lifetime profit over 833 markets (100% won). The largest No holder is Charcoal19, with $76 on it, $116 lifetime loss.
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 100¢ and No at 0¢, a 100% implied chance of Yes. $2.0M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
98% of the money on Yes and 44% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 54 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 30 points. A week ago, Yes by 46 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 1, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.