Who's betting on “Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?”?
Geopolitics · $1.4M volume · Ends December 31, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 14¢ and No at 87¢, an 87% implied chance of No. $1.4M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2026.
83% of the money on Yes and 76% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 7 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 6 points. A week ago, Yes by 7 points.
566 wallets hold a position worth $465K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 565 of them. The largest Yes holder is VladimirPooper, with $16K on it, $86K lifetime profit over 24 markets (38% won). The largest No holder is hopedieslast, with $63K on it, $260K lifetime profit over 233 markets (61% won).
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $87 on No.
- Smart money share
- 83%
- Holders
- 288
- Money on it
- $63K
- Holders' winrate
- 53%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 76%
- Holders
- 278
- Money on it
- $402K
- Holders' winrate
- 71%
- Snipers
- 1 · $87
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| VladimirPoopernoise | $16K | +$86K | 38% of 24 |
| tetrosewhale | $8.2K | +$213K | 55% of 565 |
| ImJustKenwhale | $7.6K | +$2.3M | 65% of 1,065 |
| Nikitka | $3.9K | -$228K | 50% of 488 |
| TheReturnOfDarthMaulwhale | $2.8K | +$1.5M | 60% of 1,014 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| hopedieslastwhale | $63K | +$260K | 61% of 233 |
| flawfencewhale | $38K | +$480K | 75% of 478 |
| SlenderMan | $33K | -$215K | 68% of 576 |
| KrackenSrusterwhale | $30K | +$273K | 66% of 904 |
| MonacoLover | $26K | -$49K | 67% of 114 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?
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- China x Japan military clash before 2027?$1.4M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?"?
566 wallets hold a position worth $465K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 565 of them. The largest Yes holder is VladimirPooper, with $16K on it, $86K lifetime profit over 24 markets (38% won). The largest No holder is hopedieslast, with $63K on it, $260K lifetime profit over 233 markets (61% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 14¢ and No at 87¢, an 87% implied chance of No. $1.4M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
83% of the money on Yes and 76% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 7 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 6 points. A week ago, Yes by 7 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on December 31, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.