Who's betting on “NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026?”?
Geopolitics · $342K volume · Ends November 16, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 8¢ and No at 93¢, a 93% implied chance of No. $342K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 16, 2026.
95% of the money on Yes and 73% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 22 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 9 points.
165 wallets hold a position worth $69K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 162 of them. The largest Yes holder is ivantoney, with $1.2K on it, $108K lifetime profit over 14 markets (86% won). The largest No holder is 0x16bb…8492, with $12K on it, $105K lifetime loss over 908 markets (95% won).
- Smart money share
- 95% ▲ 13 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 85
- Money on it
- $5.2K
- Holders' winrate
- 67%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 73%
- Holders
- 80
- Money on it
- $64K
- Holders' winrate
- 78%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| ivantoney | $1.2K | +$108K | 86% of 14 |
| DonationsReceiverwhale | $994 | +$58K | 57% of 511 |
| aenews2whale | $875 | +$2.3M | 73% of 1,114 |
| AlphaBetaGamma2357whale | $553 | +$71K | 50% of 232 |
| bZk0Uobalanced | $486 | +$36 | 69% of 855 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x16bb…8492 | $12K | -$105K | 95% of 908 |
| yen4uwhale | $7.3K | +$66K | 94% of 1,341 |
| AllByMyseIfwhale | $7.0K | +$560K | 85% of 1,031 |
| Arman2whale | $6.5K | +$897 | 66% of 311 |
| lht023 | $6.4K | +$139 | 67% of 3 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
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Questions
Who is betting on "NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026?"?
165 wallets hold a position worth $69K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 162 of them. The largest Yes holder is ivantoney, with $1.2K on it, $108K lifetime profit over 14 markets (86% won). The largest No holder is 0x16bb…8492, with $12K on it, $105K lifetime loss over 908 markets (95% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 8¢ and No at 93¢, a 93% implied chance of No. $342K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 16, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
95% of the money on Yes and 73% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 22 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 9 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 16, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.