Who's betting on “NATO x Russia military clash by November 30, 2026?”?
Geopolitics · $116K volume · Ends December 1, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 12¢ and No at 89¢, an 89% implied chance of No. $116K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 1, 2026.
83% of the money on Yes and 58% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 25 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 28 points.
127 wallets hold a position worth $18K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 124 of them. The largest Yes holder is bZk0Uo, with $750 on it, $36 lifetime profit over 855 markets (69% won). The largest No holder is SlenderMan, with $4.4K on it, $215K lifetime loss over 576 markets (68% won).
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $12 on Yes.
- Smart money share
- 83% ▲ 11 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 62
- Money on it
- $2.1K
- Holders' winrate
- 62%
- Snipers
- 1 · $12
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 58% ▲ 13 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 65
- Money on it
- $16K
- Holders' winrate
- 66%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| bZk0Uobalanced | $750 | +$36 | 69% of 855 |
| AlphaBetaGamma2357whale | $324 | +$71K | 50% of 232 |
| ElsaMi | $99 | -$17K | 71% of 407 |
| Gr4pefruit7000whale | $98 | +$44K | 56% of 419 |
| cigarettes | $97 | -$10K | 46% of 42,335 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| SlenderMan | $4.4K | -$215K | 68% of 576 |
| paddaawhale | $2.8K | +$279K | 58% of 1,425 |
| Carwhale | $1.9K | +$1.5M | 58% of 1,670 |
| 0xff1e352d5310eab17d1e9fd7e00ec33f16c05e2 | $1.1K | -$5.2K | 97% of 663 |
| Drpxlbalanced | $885 | +$16K | 69% of 110 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in NATO x Russia military clash by...?
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- Xi Jinping out before 2027?$16M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
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- Cuban regime falls in 2026?$1.8M vol.Yes 13%No 87%Smart money: No
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?$1.4M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: Yes
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?$1.4M vol.Yes 14%No 87%Smart money: Yes
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?$1.2M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
Questions
Who is betting on "NATO x Russia military clash by November 30, 2026?"?
127 wallets hold a position worth $18K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 124 of them. The largest Yes holder is bZk0Uo, with $750 on it, $36 lifetime profit over 855 markets (69% won). The largest No holder is SlenderMan, with $4.4K on it, $215K lifetime loss over 576 markets (68% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "NATO x Russia military clash by November 30, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 12¢ and No at 89¢, an 89% implied chance of No. $116K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 1, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
83% of the money on Yes and 58% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 25 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 28 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on December 1, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.