Who's betting on “Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?”?
Geopolitics · $689K volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 5¢ and No at 95¢, a 95% implied chance of No. $689K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
86% of the money on Yes and 90% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago it was split.
405 wallets hold a position worth $19K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 405 of them. The largest Yes holder is HOD-Capital, with $501 on it, $13K lifetime profit over 4 markets (75% won). The largest No holder is denizz, with $5.8K on it, $2.3M lifetime profit over 1,006 markets (66% won).
- Smart money share
- 86%
- Holders
- 153
- Money on it
- $971
- Holders' winrate
- 59%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 90%
- Holders
- 252
- Money on it
- $18K
- Holders' winrate
- 61%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOD-Capital | $501 | +$13K | 75% of 4 |
| UpTightwhale | $55 | +$2.0K | 49% of 200 |
| 0x11B8b3f42013D178e1755e2ee40D797a29519ee0-1769340876173balanced | $50 | +$101 | 59% of 58 |
| meagainsttheworldwhale | $33 | +$147K | 76% of 1,056 |
| TimeTravelerwhale | $20 | +$149K | 88% of 1,276 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| denizzwhale | $5.8K | +$2.3M | 66% of 1,006 |
| pakukudolphiwhale | $4.6K | +$138K | 46% of 310 |
| ineedmassagewhale | $1.3K | +$19K | 74% of 217 |
| MajidJavadiwhale | $930 | +$56K | 64% of 267 |
| FastPawsnoise | $656 | +$475 | 53% of 51 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
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- Xi Jinping out before 2027?$16M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
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- NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?$4.1M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: Yes
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?$3.5M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$3.4M vol.Yes 18%No 82%Smart money: Yes
- Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?$2.0M vol.Yes 100%No 0%Smart money: Yes
- Cuban regime falls in 2026?$1.8M vol.Yes 12%No 89%Smart money: No
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?$1.4M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?"?
405 wallets hold a position worth $19K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 405 of them. The largest Yes holder is HOD-Capital, with $501 on it, $13K lifetime profit over 4 markets (75% won). The largest No holder is denizz, with $5.8K on it, $2.3M lifetime profit over 1,006 markets (66% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 5¢ and No at 95¢, a 95% implied chance of No. $689K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
86% of the money on Yes and 90% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago it was split.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.