Who's betting on “Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?”?
Geopolitics · $441K volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 3¢ and No at 97¢, a 97% implied chance of No. $441K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
64% of the money on Yes and 63% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago it was split.
259 wallets hold a position worth $205K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 258 of them. The largest Yes holder is LlamaLoco0000, with $3.2K on it, $348K lifetime profit over 297 markets (45% won). The largest No holder is aannggg, with $47K on it, $0 lifetime profit.
- Smart money share
- 64%
- Holders
- 86
- Money on it
- $5.2K
- Holders' winrate
- 39%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 63%
- Holders
- 173
- Money on it
- $199K
- Holders' winrate
- 76%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| LlamaLoco0000noise | $3.2K | +$348K | 45% of 297 |
| 0x154506893D8Ea9BcdF2A875a7A6CFe810e173599-1771680135006 | $1.0K | -$6.5K | 16% of 19 |
| B1B2 | $167 | -$230 | 35% of 110 |
| PauliusKuncinas | $147 | -$460 | 78% of 40 |
| Pivko | $87 | -$2.8K | 40% of 10 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| aannggg | $47K | +$0 | - |
| budu100whale | $34K | +$7.4K | 67% of 145 |
| Aq4ExePrd22Jn | $19K | -$17K | 91% of 44 |
| J3lcExePrd1KE5Mbalanced | $17K | +$16K | 89% of 37 |
| OiOiOiCxxtCxxtCxxt | $12K | +$408 | 100% of 4 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
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- China x Japan military clash before 2027?$1.4M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?"?
259 wallets hold a position worth $205K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 258 of them. The largest Yes holder is LlamaLoco0000, with $3.2K on it, $348K lifetime profit over 297 markets (45% won). The largest No holder is aannggg, with $47K on it, $0 lifetime profit.
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 3¢ and No at 97¢, a 97% implied chance of No. $441K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
64% of the money on Yes and 63% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago it was split.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.