Who's betting on “US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?”?
Geopolitics · $1.1M volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 25, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 3¢ and No at 97¢, a 97% implied chance of No. $1.1M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
48% of the money on Yes and 27% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 20 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 22 points. A week ago, Yes by 8 points.
374 wallets hold a position worth $9.0K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 374 of them. The largest Yes holder is coali10, with $59 on it, $407K lifetime profit over 179 markets (69% won). The largest No holder is clxx, with $4.9K on it, $6.2K lifetime loss over 61 markets (90% won).
- Smart money share
- 48% ▼ 1 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 124
- Money on it
- $266
- Holders' winrate
- 48%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 27%
- Holders
- 250
- Money on it
- $8.8K
- Holders' winrate
- 85%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| coali10whale | $59 | +$407K | 69% of 179 |
| Alexx4525 | $58 | -$868 | 14% of 7 |
| 0x4BC10494e9FF592c77C277471F2Cbcf63e2e6721-1772882594705 | $15 | -$168 | 50% of 6 |
| northern-alliance-2 | $12 | +$1.2K | 100% of 4 |
| afterdark1111 | $12 | -$138 | 60% of 5 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| clxx | $4.9K | -$6.2K | 90% of 61 |
| hyperbolicPT | $485 | -$283 | 67% of 6 |
| 0xrcwhale | $432 | +$29K | 85% of 348 |
| 007-Bondbalanced | $291 | +$2.8K | 88% of 105 |
| vvvibu | $213 | -$3.2K | 89% of 9 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
Other big geopolitics markets
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?$16M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?$5.5M vol.Yes 9%No 92%Smart money split
- NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?$4.1M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: Yes
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?$3.5M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$3.4M vol.Yes 19%No 82%Smart money: Yes
- Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?$2.5M vol.Yes 100%No 0%Smart money: Yes
- Cuban regime falls in 2026?$1.8M vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money: No
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?$1.4M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?"?
374 wallets hold a position worth $9.0K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 374 of them. The largest Yes holder is coali10, with $59 on it, $407K lifetime profit over 179 markets (69% won). The largest No holder is clxx, with $4.9K on it, $6.2K lifetime loss over 61 markets (90% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 3¢ and No at 97¢, a 97% implied chance of No. $1.1M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
48% of the money on Yes and 27% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 20 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 22 points. A week ago, Yes by 8 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.